Walter Kish

It has been a relatively quiet summer in Ukraine after the excitement of the parliamentary elections back in springtime. Although Kuchma’s made-to-order political "party" failed miserably to attract the voters, and his primary opponent Yushchenko and his coalition party gained the largest share of the vote, the crafty Kuchma has managed to install his chosen minions in virtually all the positions of power in Parliament, its committees and the government administration. He has used his extensive Presidential power as well as the financial clout and influence of the oligarchs that support him to effectively negate the obvious desires of the majority of the electorate. It is clear that that he is in control, but what is also obvious is that his days are numbered and there are ominous clouds on his horizon.

His cynical abuse of power has come at a cost. An opinion poll held last month showed that 72% of the population want him to resign and an impressive 52% want him impeached. He has clearly lost the confidence of the vast majority of the Ukrainian population. This is compounded by the fact that he has also lost the confidence of most of the countries of the western world. Most European and North American leaders, as well as international agencies such as the IMF, want nothing to do with Kuchma. His abuse of power, his unwillingness to curb the graft and corruption that is endemic in Ukraine, his contemptuous manipulation of the electoral process and willingness to do anything necessary to stay in power has made him a pariah in the world’s political circles. His only friend among world leaders is Putin, and that is a friendship that even Kuchma knows comes at a high price. It used to be that Kuchma’s neighbour Lukashenka in Belarus was the most disliked, least respected and most ridiculed of the post-Soviet Eastern European leaders. Kuchma is now giving him serious competition.

The slide began with the Gongadze scandal of two years ago and the subsequent revelations of the Melnychenko tapes. Since then it has become obvious to most, that Kuchma has no real vision, program or purpose other than staying in power and safeguarding his privileged position and wealth and those of the oligarchic clique that support him. Unfortunately for Kuchma, the current constitution prevents him from running for a third term. In two years time, Kuchma will have to step down and current polls show increasingly that Yushchenko is the leading contender to succeed him. The Ukrainian population has grown tired and cynical of Kuchma’s rhetoric and appears ready to support a genuine and competent reformist movement.

Undoubtedly, Yushchenko and his new administration would do more than just pay lip service to rooting out the corruption within the Ukrainian political and economic establishment. The writing is on the wall, and Kuchma and his cronies are undoubtedly fearing the very real prospect of seeing the inside of a Ukrainian prison.

This will make for an interesting if not dangerous couple of years till the next Presidential election. Kuchma and his supporters are crafty and unscrupulous, and will not go quietly. They have two years, control of the media and the power of the vast government bureaucracy on their side, not to mention incredible financial resources. Fortunately, Yushchenko is crafty enough in his own right, and seems to be gaining in strength and credibility with the Ukrainian populace.

The game starts in all seriousness in the next few weeks. The various opposition parties have shown a rare spirit of co-operation in joining forces to organize country-wide demonstrations on the anniversary of Gongadze’s disappearance. They hope these protests will grow, gather political momentum and ultimately force Kuchma to resign.

The end-game is now progress, and time will tell whether Ukraine will finally be able to shed the last vestiges of its Soviet legacy and join the ranks of truly democratic, free-enterprise nation states. For the sake of the long-suffering Ukrainian population, we can only hope that Kuchma and his friends finally get the fate they deserve.