Some fundamental shifts in the balance of power in Eastern Europe have made it possible for Ukraine to become a "state outside a bloc," as Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma recently put it.

Speaking in Kyiv on 28 August following a meeting with visiting Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, Kuchma announced two major changes in the direction of Ukraine's security policy. He said that "Ukraine does not intend to join NATO structures," even though he would not rule out future cooperation with the Western alliance. At the same time, he made clear that Kyiv no longer intends to be bound by the provisions of the collective security treaty signed in 1992 by seven members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Instead, he said, Ukraine will seek to improve relations with individual countries, including Russia, as a means of promoting its security and well-being.

Kuchma's announcement that his country will not seek NATO membership undercuts earlier statements by Ukrainian officials that Kyiv's strategic objective is to join the Western alliance at some point in the future. But, just like his declaration about the CIS, his remarks about NATO reflect three broader changes across the region.

First, Ukraine's shift represents a triumph, rather than a defeat, for NATO's policy of expansion. It was no coincidence that Kuchma's remarks came only one day after U.S. troops landed in Crimea as part of a NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace joint exercise. Much criticized by Moscow, those maneuvers have reaffirmed Western support for Ukraine but have also prompted the Russian government to shift its position both rhetorically and in practice.

Russian criticism of the maneuvers and of Ukraine's participation have softened since the exercises began, and Russian relations with Ukraine have continued to improve, with the two sides announcing that Kuchma will make an official visit to Moscow early next year. That shift, in turn. has allowed the Ukrainians to stake out a position -- closer ties with NATO but no ultimate membership -- that allows them to seek to boost ties with Moscow without giving up continuing support from the West.

Second, Ukraine's shift reflects the collapse of the CIS as an organization relevant to the security needs of Eastern Europe. On the same day that Russian foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov declared the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is "dead" because of its failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kuchma took a step toward demonstrating that the CIS is close to its grave. He did so not by withdrawing from the organization as a whole but rather by underscoring that Ukraine will give preference to bilateral ties with Russia rather than multilateral arrangements with other former Soviet republics. Moscow will hardly object to improved relations with Kyiv -- indeed, Sergeev welcomed them -- but Kyiv is the winner in this round because its stance undermines Russian pretensions to domination over the entire territory of a country that no longer exists.

Third, Ukraine's shift reflects a normalization of relations between Kyiv and Moscow. It also highlights a growing willingness on the part of the Russians to view Ukraine as an independent country and on the part of Ukrainians to see Russia as something other than an enemy.

By staking out a position outside of any bloc, Ukraine is reaffirming its position as an important country within Eastern Europe, one that will act on its own interests rather than at the behest of any other country. And as ever more Russian officials accept Ukraine's new status -- something NATO's Partnership for Peace program has helped promote -- Ukrainians will find it easier to accept Russia as a potential partner rather than the inevitable enemy.

Obviously, a single speech, even one as important as Kuchma's on 28 August, does not guarantee that the geopolitics of the region will develop without serious problems. But as an indication of fundamental shifts, Kuchma's remarks are an important milepost on the road to a better future for Ukrainians, for Russians, and for the region in which they live.

ETHNIC RUSSIANS PROTEST UKRAINIAN SCHOOL. Pro-Russian citizens in Ukraine's eastern industrial city of Donetsk on 1 September staged protests against the opening of the first Ukrainian-language school in the city, Interfax reported. Dozens of activists picketed the school to protest what they called the "forceful Ukrainization" of their mainly Russian-speaking region. The Russian language is widely used in some parts of Ukraine, including Kyiv and the eastern and southern regions. It is predominantly used on the Crimean peninsula, where 75 percent of the 2.7 million population are ethnic Russians. Ukraine's pro-Russian parties are in favor of the equal status of the Ukrainian and Russian languages. Also on 1 September, the Crimean authorities opened the first Ukrainian school in the region, saying they planned to open more Ukrainian schools later this year.

Some fundamental shifts in the balance of power in Eastern Europe have made it possible for Ukraine to become a "state outside a bloc," as Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma recently put it.

Speaking in Kyiv on 28 August following a meeting with visiting Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, Kuchma announced two major changes in the direction of Ukraine's security policy. He said that "Ukraine does not intend to join NATO structures," even though he would not rule out future cooperation with the Western alliance. At the same time, he made clear that Kyiv no longer intends to be bound by the provisions of the collective security treaty signed in 1992 by seven members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Instead, he said, Ukraine will seek to improve relations with individual countries, including Russia, as a means of promoting its security and well-being.

Kuchma's announcement that his country will not seek NATO membership undercuts earlier statements by Ukrainian officials that Kyiv's strategic objective is to join the Western alliance at some point in the future. But, just like his declaration about the CIS, his remarks about NATO reflect three broader changes across the region.

First, Ukraine's shift represents a triumph, rather than a defeat, for NATO's policy of expansion. It was no coincidence that Kuchma's remarks came only one day after U.S. troops landed in Crimea as part of a NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace joint exercise. Much criticized by Moscow, those maneuvers have reaffirmed Western support for Ukraine but have also prompted the Russian government to shift its position both rhetorically and in practice.

Russian criticism of the maneuvers and of Ukraine's participation have softened since the exercises began, and Russian relations with Ukraine have continued to improve, with the two sides announcing that Kuchma will make an official visit to Moscow early next year. That shift, in turn. has allowed the Ukrainians to stake out a position -- closer ties with NATO but no ultimate membership -- that allows them to seek to boost ties with Moscow without giving up continuing support from the West.

Second, Ukraine's shift reflects the collapse of the CIS as an organization relevant to the security needs of Eastern Europe. On the same day that Russian foreign policy expert Sergei Karaganov declared the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is "dead" because of its failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kuchma took a step toward demonstrating that the CIS is close to its grave. He did so not by withdrawing from the organization as a whole but rather by underscoring that Ukraine will give preference to bilateral ties with Russia rather than multilateral arrangements with other former Soviet republics. Moscow will hardly object to improved relations with Kyiv -- indeed, Sergeev welcomed them -- but Kyiv is the winner in this round because its stance undermines Russian pretensions to domination over the entire territory of a country that no longer exists.

Third, Ukraine's shift reflects a normalization of relations between Kyiv and Moscow. It also highlights a growing willingness on the part of the Russians to view Ukraine as an independent country and on the part of Ukrainians to see Russia as something other than an enemy.

By staking out a position outside of any bloc, Ukraine is reaffirming its position as an important country within Eastern Europe, one that will act on its own interests rather than at the behest of any other country. And as ever more Russian officials accept Ukraine's new status -- something NATO's Partnership for Peace program has helped promote -- Ukrainians will find it easier to accept Russia as a potential partner rather than the inevitable enemy.

Obviously, a single speech, even one as important as Kuchma's on 28 August, does not guarantee that the geopolitics of the region will develop without serious problems. But as an indication of fundamental shifts, Kuchma's remarks are an important milepost on the road to a better future for Ukrainians, for Russians, and for the region in which they live.