END NOTE: COURTING STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IN KYIV xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
COURTING STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IN KYIV
Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma scored several impressive political victories in the past two weeks. The major one was of course the overwhelming approval of all four questions in the 16 April constitutional referendum, which is widely expected to give him considerable additional levers of control over the parliament as soon as the will of the people is reflected in appropriate constitutional amendments. However, the two high-level visits to Kyiv shortly before and after the referendum--one by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on 14 April and another of Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin on 18 April--turned out to be no lesser successes for the Ukrainian leader than the plebiscite.
Albright moved up her trip to Kyiv, which had been originally planned for 20-21 April, thus giving rise to much speculation in Ukrainian and Russian media that she wanted to be in Kyiv before Putin in order to prevent Kuchma from making too many concessions to the Kremlin's energetic ruler. In particular, those media suggested that Albright would persuade Kuchma to stop paying the Russian gas debt with strategic bombers and cruise missiles. Also, Albright reportedly informed Kuchma about Washington's concern that he continue the course of reform and keep reformist Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko in office as long as possible. In exchange for Kuchma's agreement, Albright reportedly pledged U.S. massive political and financial support to Kyiv.
Albright did not spare praise for Kuchma and his renewed pledges to put Ukraine on a reform path. "I was very impressed by President Kuchma's dedication to this [reform] process and his desire to move the reform process forward, and by the work the prime minister is undertaking," she told journalists. Ukraine is expected to receive $219 million in U.S. aid this year. Albright also said she was "heartened" when Kuchma reaffirmed his intention to close the Chornobyl nuclear power plant this year. And she expressed support for the constitutional referendum, which is, however, regarded by the Council of Europe as dangerous to Ukraine's fledgling democracy.
There was no mention, at least in official pronouncements, of what is believed to be a thorn in U.S.- Ukrainian relations--namely, Ukraine's pervasive corruption that hinders both the Ukrainian government and U.S. investors in promoting market reforms and generating economic growth in the country. Ukraine's National Bank has recently been checked by international auditors in connection with the charges of misusing IMF loans. Some commentators concluded that the audit, whose results are purportedly known to Washington, is not expected to do much damage to Kyiv.
On the other hand, Putin's visit promised a lot of unpleasant moments for Kuchma. In contrast to lumpish and jovial Yeltsin, who was guided primarily by Moscow's Sovietera patronage in "no neckties" contacts with his "younger brother" from Kyiv, Putin is believed to be a cold pragmatist. Ukraine's gigantic gas debt to Russia was to be the main topic of the Kuchma-Putin talks in Kyiv. Some Russian and Ukrainian left-wing politicians expected that Putin would use economic leverage to persuade Kuchma into making some steps toward to the "Slavic" union of Russian and Belarus.
However, Putin's visit turned out to be a reconnoitering rather than an attack. Officially it was said that both leaders discussed a variety of important bilateral issues, but no decision was taken and no document was signed. Putin's sharpest pronouncement with regard to Kyiv was at a news conference in Sevastopol, when he noted that Russia and Ukraine "should quit barter in mutual settlements and increase payments in cash to one another." To which Kuchma duly responded that "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow" he will see to this problem. Some Russian media speculated that Putin reiterated to Kuchma Russia's former demands that Ukraine pay its gas debt with shares in privatized companies. But others suggested that this plan has already been dropped because of Kyiv's strong objection. A special bilateral commission has to work out a mutually acceptable solution to the Ukrainian gas debt dilemma by the end of May.
In other words, one more time Kuchma has demonstrated
his unshakable position as the leader of a geostrategically
important country that permanently balances on the verge of
economic collapse but nevertheless successfully maneuvers its
political course through the conflicting interests of
Washington and Moscow. Taking into account the latest
outburst of popular love for and confidence in the president
during Ukraine's constitutional referendum, Kuchma may be
said to be one of the most successful politicians on the
post-Soviet territory. Will he ever be held accountable for
Ukraine's disastrous economic performance? At present such a
development does not seem too likely. The first thing Kuchma
did after the visits of Albright and Putin was to harshly
criticize Viktor Yushchenko's government for a slow reform
pace.
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Copyright (c) 2000 RFE/RL, Inc.
All rights reserved.
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END NOTE: COURTING STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IN KYIV xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BELARUSIAN MARCHES: ONE PEACEFUL, ONE NOT. More than 10,000 people marched from Minsk's center toward Bangalore Square without incident on 26 April to commemorate the 14th anniversary of the Chornobyl accident, ITAR-TASS reported. Some of the demonstrators carried placards calling for Belarusian independence and opposing union with Russia. Meanwhile, Belarusian police broke up a small demonstration staged by the Belarus Conservative Christian Party at Yakub Kolos Square, dpa reported. Four participants were reportedly beaten and one was arrested. PG
...HOPES TO RESETTLE CHORNOBYL-HIT AREAS. During his visit to southern Belarus, Lukashenka announced that he wants to set up a resettlement area in radiation-contaminated areas and that he will give automatic Belarusian citizenship "within one week" to anyone from a Commonwealth of Independent States country who settles there, dpa reported on 26 April. In other comments, Lukashenka noted that he keeps the distribution of the $150 million annual fund for victims of Chornobyl under his personal control, ITAR-TASS reported. He further said that Minsk stands ready to offer its experience and expertise to any place that might suffer a nuclear accident in the future. PG
UKRAINE TO SET CHORNOBYL CLOSURE AFTER TALKS. On the 14th anniversary of the Chornobyl nuclear accident, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma said that "it is too early yet to give the exact date" for the final closure of the plant, ITAR-TASS reported on 26 April. And Environment and Natural Resources Minister Ivan Zayets said that "it will be very, very hard for Ukraine to close the Chornobyl nuclear power plant without proper funding, including from abroad." But Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko said that a closure date will be announced after consultations with Western donor countries are completed. Kyiv currently estimates the damage from the accident at $140 billion; so far, it has received only $5 billion in domestic and foreign funds to handle the cleanup and health problems. PG
KUCHMA PLEDGES TO RESOLVE GAS DEBT PROBLEM. President Leonid Kuchma said on 26 April that he will meet with Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin on 3 May in Prokhorovka in Russia's Belgorod region to try to resolve Ukraine's gas debt to Russia. "In May, we need to solve the problem of our gas debts," he said, adding that "we at least need to know how much Ukraine owes Russia for gas, because even I receive different figures every day." PG
EXPERTS URGE BAN ON MISSILE TESTS NEAR POPULATED AREAS. A group of non-government experts appealed to the Ukrainian government to ban the testing of any missiles near nuclear and other power stations, large bodies of water, and major cities, ITAR-TASS reported on 26 April. The appeal came after a missile veered off course last week and killed three people while wounding five others in a Kyiv suburb. PG
COURTING STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IN KYIV
Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma scored several impressive political victories in the past two weeks. The major one was of course the overwhelming approval of all four questions in the 16 April constitutional referendum, which is widely expected to give him considerable additional levers of control over the parliament as soon as the will of the people is reflected in appropriate constitutional amendments. However, the two high-level visits to Kyiv shortly before and after the referendum--one by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on 14 April and another of Russian President-elect Vladimir Putin on 18 April--turned out to be no lesser successes for the Ukrainian leader than the plebiscite.
Albright moved up her trip to Kyiv, which had been originally planned for 20-21 April, thus giving rise to much speculation in Ukrainian and Russian media that she wanted to be in Kyiv before Putin in order to prevent Kuchma from making too many concessions to the Kremlin's energetic ruler. In particular, those media suggested that Albright would persuade Kuchma to stop paying the Russian gas debt with strategic bombers and cruise missiles. Also, Albright reportedly informed Kuchma about Washington's concern that he continue the course of reform and keep reformist Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko in office as long as possible. In exchange for Kuchma's agreement, Albright reportedly pledged U.S. massive political and financial support to Kyiv.
Albright did not spare praise for Kuchma and his renewed pledges to put Ukraine on a reform path. "I was very impressed by President Kuchma's dedication to this [reform] process and his desire to move the reform process forward, and by the work the prime minister is undertaking," she told journalists. Ukraine is expected to receive $219 million in U.S. aid this year. Albright also said she was "heartened" when Kuchma reaffirmed his intention to close the Chornobyl nuclear power plant this year. And she expressed support for the constitutional referendum, which is, however, regarded by the Council of Europe as dangerous to Ukraine's fledgling democracy.
There was no mention, at least in official pronouncements, of what is believed to be a thorn in U.S.-Ukrainian relations--namely, Ukraine's pervasive corruption that hinders both the Ukrainian government and U.S. investors in promoting market reforms and generating economic growth in the country. Ukraine's National Bank has recently been checked by international auditors in connection with the charges of misusing IMF loans. Some commentators concluded that the audit, whose results are purportedly known to Washington, is not expected to do much damage to Kyiv.
On the other hand, Putin's visit promised a lot of unpleasant moments for Kuchma. In contrast to lumpish and jovial Yeltsin, who was guided primarily by Moscow's Soviet-era patronage in "no neckties" contacts with his "younger brother" from Kyiv, Putin is believed to be a cold pragmatist. Ukraine's gigantic gas debt to Russia was to be the main topic of the Kuchma-Putin talks in Kyiv. Some Russian and Ukrainian left-wing politicians expected that Putin would use economic leverage to persuade Kuchma into making some steps toward to the "Slavic" union of Russian and Belarus.
However, Putin's visit turned out to be a reconnoitering rather than an attack. Officially it was said that both leaders discussed a variety of important bilateral issues, but no decision was taken and no document was signed. Putin's sharpest pronouncement with regard to Kyiv was at a news conference in Sevastopol, when he noted that Russia and Ukraine "should quit barter in mutual settlements and increase payments in cash to one another." To which Kuchma duly responded that "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow" he will see to this problem. Some Russian media speculated that Putin reiterated to Kuchma Russia's former demands that Ukraine pay its gas debt with shares in privatized companies. But others suggested that this plan has already been dropped because of Kyiv's strong objection. A special bilateral commission has to work out a mutually acceptable solution to the Ukrainian gas debt dilemma by the end of May.
In other words, one more time Kuchma has demonstrated his unshakable position as the leader of a geostrategically important country that permanently balances on the verge of economic collapse but nevertheless successfully maneuvers its political course through the conflicting interests of Washington and Moscow. Taking into account the latest outburst of popular love for and confidence in the president during Ukraine's constitutional referendum, Kuchma may be said to be one of the most successful politicians on the post-Soviet territory. Will he ever be held accountable for Ukraine's disastrous economic performance? At present such a development does not seem too likely. The first thing Kuchma did after the visits of Albright and Putin was to harshly criticize Viktor Yushchenko's government for a slow reform pace. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Copyright (c) 2000 RFE/RL, Inc.
All rights reserved.
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