S U M M A R Y

S U M M A R Y

The Real Sector Development

within the period of 9 months of 2002, the real GDP increased by 4.1% as compared to the same period of the previous year (last year it grew by 10.5%) and constituted 155,335 ml UAH.
Between January and September 2002, the fastest gross added value growth was seen in the wholesale and retail trade (111.1%), in the manufacturing industry (107.9%), and in the agriculture, hunting and forestry (104.1%).
According to the preliminary data, the industrial production growth constituted 6.0% between January and September 2002 as compared to the last year figure (16.7%), including growth by 7.9% (20.5%) in manufacturing with its share of 73.8% in the total national industry output, in mining industry - 1.3% (4.1%), in generation and distribution of the electric power, gas and water – 0.1% (2.8%).
The industrial production volume increased in September 2002 as compared to August of the current year by 3.1%, and as compared to September 2001– by 6.3%.
Tangible increment in January-September 2002 as compared to the same period in 2001 was achieved in coke production and oil products processing (30.4%, however, coke output decreased by 7.6%); in the wood production and manufacturing of wood products (26.6%); in the foodstuff industry and agricultural products processing (8.8%); and in the machine-building (8.0%).
Since May of 2002, the metallurgy and metal processing have been constantly growing. As the result, within 9 months of the current year the growth constituted 1.1%, including the 2.6% growth in the non-ferrous metals, in metal processing – 3.6%, in ferrous metallurgy – 1.0%. At the same time, however, the pipe production and primary steel processing contracted by 4.0% and 2.5% respectively.
The largest contribution to the total industrial growth (6.0%) in January-September of the current year (adjusted for the respective share in the industrial production structure) was made by the enterprises in the foodstuff industry (+1.5 percentage points), the coke production and oil products processing (+1.3 percentage points), and the machine-building (+1.0 percentage points). The negative percentage points were brought into this figure by the energy generating enterprises (- 0.1 percentage points).
The negative trend towards the diminishing number of profitable enterprises in the Ukrainian industry persists. Thus, in January-August 2002, only 48% of the enterprises were profitable (last year figure was 51%), of which 50% in the manufacturing industry (52%), 29% in the generation and distribution of the electric power, gas and water (34%), and 35% in the mining industry (41%). Among the manufacturing industries, the number of the profitable enterprises decreased by 56% in the chemical and petrochemical industries (last year figure was 62%), 47% in the metallurgy and metal processing (54%), 49% in the light industry (52%), and 57% in the coke production and oil products processing (79%). the number of profitable enterprises increased by 69% in the pulp-and-paper, polygraph industry and publishing (last year figure was 67%), and by 52% in the foodstuff industry and agricultural products processing (50%).
The share of the products shipped on a barter basis decreased by 4.0 percentage points (from 8.2% in the period between January and August 2001 to 4.2% in January-August of 2002). The cash revenues constituted 84.2% (77.6% in January-August of 2001). The total amount of the shipped products in this period amounted to 112.7 bl UAH.
The retail trade turnover in January-September 2002 increased by 16.3% as compared to January-September of 2001 (last year it grew by 9.2%).

Arrears in the Economy

In January-August 2002, the amount of accounts receivable increased by 5.1% (last year figure was 16.5%), while accounts payable grew by 3.5% (6.5%). The accounts payable exceeded receivables 1.3 times. The accounts receivable increased by 7.3% in the period of January-August of the current year as compared to the same period of the last year and accounts payable augmented by 6.7%.
As of September 1, 2002, the largest portion of the accounts receivable came from the industry – 43.8%, the generation and distribution of the electric power, gas and water – 47.2%, the manufacturing - 39.7%, and the mining industry – 13.1%.
The share of the outstanding debts remained significant. Thus, as of September 1, 2002, the share of the overdue accounts receivable in the total debt formed 40.8%, while the share of the accounts payable was 40.1%.
In first 8 months of 2002, the accounts receivable of enterprises in Ukraine increased by 6.0% (last year figure was 15.1%) and the accounts payable grew by 4.0% (6.0%).

Settlements and Debts of the Fuel and Energy Complex Enterprises

Energy

According to the Ministry of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine, 13,606.6 ml UAH of electricity was delivered to consumers in 9 months of 2002. The actual payment for energy supply made 12,727.8 ml UAH or 93.5% of the delivered energy amount including cash payments of 11,724.1 ml UAH or 86.2% of electricity supply (last year figure was 73.9%).

The accounts receivable of enterprises in electricity generation sector for energy provided to consumers increased by 807 ml UAH or by 8.8% since the beginning of the year and constituted 9.98 bl UAH as of october 1, 2002.

The accounts payable of enterprises in this industry decreased since the beginning of 2002 by 959.0 ml UAH or by 6.9% and made 13.0 bl UAH as of october 1, 2002. The accounts payable exceeded the accounts receivable by 0.8 bl UAH.

Coal Industry

Within 9 months of 2002, the industry enterprises sold 5,025.9 ml UAH of coal, including 2,582.9 ml UAH of coal to the energy sector, and 1,934.4 ml UAH of coal for the coke production.

As of July 1, 2002, the industry enterprises’ accounts payable constituted 10,729.7 ml UAH and exceeded the accounts receivable by 6,033.8 ml UAH.

Oil and Gas Industry

Within 9 months of 2002, the National Shareholding Company "Naftogaz Ukrainy" sold 26.7 bl cubic meters of natural gas to consumers for 5,781.3 ml UAH. The amount of 5,276.8 ml UAH (91.3% of the total supply) was settled including 5,103.9 ml UAH of bank funds (88.3% of supply).

Inflation

In September 2002, the consumer price index comprised 100.2%, while it was 96.7% in the first 9 of 2002 (the last year figure was 103.7%).
In September of the current year, the prices for foodstuffs went up by 0.2% as a result of a seasonal price increase. The eggs, fruits, and diary product prices grew by 9.7%, 2.9%, and 0.4% respectively. At the same time, the potatoes became cheaper by 8.2%, while the vegetable prices went down by 4.5%. The non-foodstuff prices and cost of services increased by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. The secondary and higher education became more expensive by 9.6% and 6.1% respectively. The prices for hotel services, training courses and sport services increased by 4.0% and 2.0% respectively.
In January-September 2002, the foodstuff prices decreased by 6.1% (last year figure was 4.5%), the non-foodstuff prices and services increased by 1.2% and 2.1% respectively (0.6% and 3.9%).
In September 2002, the industrial production price index amounted to 100.3% while constituting 105.3% since the beginning of the year (last year figure was 101.4%). The largest price increase was observed in the coke production and oil products processing (27.4%), in the energy materials mining (16.7%), and in the generation and distribution of the electric power, gas and water (11.2%). At the same time, prices dropped in the latex and plastic goods production (2.7%), in the foodstuff industry and agricultural products processing (2.0%), and in the production of non-metal mineral products (0.2%).

Fiscal Policy

The real revenues of the consolidated and State Budget increased by 16.8% and 20.4% respectively for 9 months of 2002.

The consolidated Budget surplus constituted 2,716.6 ml UAH (1.7% of GDP) in january-September 2002, including the State Budget surplus of 1,859.3 ml UAH (1.2% of GDP) as compared to the last year figures of 1,379.7 ml UAH and 764.6 ml UAH respectively (in 2001, the State budget revenues included revenues from the state property privatization).

In the period of january-September 2002, the consolidated budget revenues made up 43,779.8 ml UAH, while the revenues of the State Budget amounted to 31,853.0 ml UAH with the 71.0% and 70.2% execution rates of the 2002 Budget projections respectively.

As of October 1, 2002, the consolidated budget expenditures made up 41,063.1 ml UAH, while the expenditures of the State Budget amounted to 29,993.7 ml UAH with the 62.6% and 60.5% execution rates of the 2002 Budget projections respectively.

Foreign Exchange, Money Market and Lending

Since the beginning of 2002 and as of October 28, 2002, the hryvnya devalued against the US dollar by 3.13 kopiyok or by 0.59% (5.3298 UAH/USD).
Since the beginning of 2002 and as of October 28, 2002, the national currency devalued against the EURO by 53.39 kopiyok or by 11.43% (5.2035 UAH/ EURO).
Since the beginning of 2002 and as of October 1, 2002, the cash increased by 21.5% (last year figure was 26.6%), the monetary base grew by 26.5% (21.8%), and the money supply expanded by 26.7% (23.5%).
The share of cash in the money supply constituted 41.0% as of October 1, 2002 as compared to 42.7% at the end of 2001, while it made up 81.1% in the monetary base as compared to 84.4%.
In January-September 2002, the outstanding loans related to the commercial banking financing of the economy of Ukraine increased by 30.8% (last year figure was 35.7%), including those in the national and foreign currency by 34.1% (42.2%) and 26.8% (28.2%) respectively.

Agro-industrial Complex

In 9 months of 2002, the agricultural production increased by 3.0% in the comparative prices against the corresponding period of 2001 (last year figure was 11.3%), with the growth in households production by 6.4%, while the production of the agricultural enterprises of all forms of property contracted by 1.7%.
The total amount of products sold by the agricultural enterprises increased by 18% in January-September 2002 as compared to the same period of 2001, including an increase in crop sales by 22% as well as a rise in the livestock sales by 14%.
The livestock production growth was observed in most of the product categories. Thus, the egg production increased by 16.3%, the cattle and poultry sales went up by 7.3%, and the milk production augmented by 5.9%.

Reforming Property

According to the State Property Fund of Ukraine, 4,665 objects were privatized in 9 months of 2002 (last year figure was 4,026), of which 25.9% of objects were state-owned (28.3%), and 74.1% were in the communal property (71.7%). The number of the privatized objects grew in that period as compared to the same period of the last year by 15.9%.
In January-September 2002, privatization of the objects owned by the state, other revenues directly related to the privatization process and lending to enterprises accounted for 520.3 ml UAH. The transfer of 497.1 ml UAH was made to the general fund of the State Budget.

Fixed Capital Investments

In the first half of 2002, the fixed capital investments went up by 12.4% (in the first half of 2001 – by 23.6%). The investments increased in 24 regions of Ukraine, except for the Ivano-Frankivsk and Rivne regions and Kyiv.
In the first half of 2002, the major source of fixed capital investments were as follows: capital and retained earnings of businesses and organizations – 67.4% of the total invested amount (last year figure was 66.2%), bank loans and other lending - 4.9% (3.3%), individual investments in housing construction – 4.8% (5.1%), foreign investors' funds – 4.7% (3.5%), the State Budget funds – 4.5% (6.3%), local budgets funds - 3,4% (4.2%), and other sources of financing – 10.3% (11.4%).
The largest portion of all fixed capital investments was channeled into development of the industrial enterprises (45.4%). Almost a quarter of the total investment resources was absorbed by the defense industry enterprises. Considerable amounts were also invested in the transport, post and communication enterprises (19.9%).
In the first half of 2002, the businesses and organizations of all types of property absorbed 12,072.7 ml UAH of the fixed capital investments. The 54.9% of the investments went into the collectively owned businesses, 32.4% to the state property enterprises, and 5.7% was invested into communal property organizations. Finally, only 5.7% of the total investments was directed into the private sector.

Foreign Economic Activities

In the first half of 2002, the foreign trade of goods and services increased by 2.6% as compared to the first half of 2001 and amounted to 18.2 bl USD. The exports of goods and services grew by 2.2% (last year figure was 17.1%), imports went up by 3.1% (7.1%). The surplus of trade balance of goods and services constituted 1.72 bl USD (last year figure was 1.75 bl USD).
In January-August of 2002, the foreign trade of goods increased by 4.1% as compared to January-August of the previous year, with the exports growing by 3.2% and imports by 5.0%. The surplus of trade balance of goods for 8 months of the current year constituted 485.0 ml USD (last year figure was 642.5 ml USD).
The ratio of export/import coverage was 1.05 (the last year figure was 1.06).
The share of the machine-building and metal working products in the export structure decreased as compared to the same period of the last year and comprised 13.8% (last year figure was 14.9%). At the same time, the share of grain crops went up to 4.3% (1.0%), while that of the mineral fuel, oil and oil products processing reached 9.2% (6.9%).
The exports of goods to Russian Federation amounted to 17.8% of the total export volume (last year figure was 24.3%), while the imports made up 36.1% (37.6%).
in January-August 2002, the portion of the export and import shipments carried out on barter basis constituted 0.1% of the total amount (last year it was 0.4% and 0.3% respectively).

Foreign Direct Investments

The official FDI amounted to 425.5 ml USD in the first half of 2002, which is equal to a 15.7% increase as compared to the same period of 2001.
As of July 1, 2002, the total amount of FDI in ukraine comprised 4745.2 ml USD.
Net growth of the FDI in Ukraine in the first half of 2002 constituted 275.8 ml USD, a 15.3% increase from the last year figure.
The FDI came from 112 countries. The largest amounts were contributed by nonresidents of the USA (17.4% of the total investments), cyprus (10.5%), the United Kingdom (9.4%), Netherlands (8.2%), the Russian Federation (6.8%), the British Virgin Islands (6.5%), Germany (5.7%), and Switzerland (4.2%). these countries accounted for almost 72% of the total FDI into economy of Ukraine.
As in the previous periods, the foodstuff industry and agricultural products processing and wholesale trade and intermediary trade attracted 17.4% and 15.3% of the total investments respectively remaining the most attractive types of economic activity for foreign investors. Other sectors such as financial operations (7.9%), machine-building (7.4%), transport (6.9%), metallurgy and metal processing (5.5%), chemical and petrochemical industry as well as the real estate transactions (4.3%) have been of interest to the foreign investors as well.

Social Development

As of September 1, 2002, the population of Ukraine is estimated to be 48,094.9 thousand.
In January-August 2002, the disposable income, which can be used for purchases of consumer goods and services, increased by 21.5% while the real disposable income went up by 19.7%.
The cash income per capita constituted 342.2 UAH in August 2002.
The nominal average salary went up by 0.3% in September as compared to august and by 21.9% since the beginning of the year and constituted 391.14 UAH.
The salary arrears increased by 0.5% or by 11.4 ml UAH in September 2002 and made 2,394.9 ml UAH as of October 1. Since the year beginning salary arrears decreased by 3.1% or by 78.0 ml UAH.
In respect to the types of property, 34.9% of the salary arrears is concentrated in the state-owned enterprises, 5.7% - communal enterprises, 59.4% - other types of enterprises, of which 29.6% and 11.2% are public corporations and limited liability companies respectively.
as of October 1, 2002, 28.7% of the total number of workers employed in the industry did not receive salary in a timely manner.
The social maintenance arrears have been increasing for the fourth consecutive month from 6.2 ml UAH (July 2002) to 107.4 ml UAH (November 2002). The amount increased 2.4 times or by 63.5 ml UAH in September 2002.
as of October 1, 2002, the number of citizens with an unemployment status has decreased by 2.6% since the beginning of the year and constituted 991.8 thousand individuals.
as of October 1, 2002, the level of registered unemployment constituted 3.6% of the working population. It comprised 5.8% in the rural and 2.9% in the urban areas.
The highest rate of unemployment was registered in the Rivne region - 6.9%, which was almost twice as high as an average unemployment rate in the country.
The rate of the registered unemployment remained low in Kyiv (0.5%), Sevastopol (0.8%), and in the Odesa region (1.7%).

	Nominal GDP, ml UAH	Rate of real GDP growth, % (to the same period of the previous year)	Nominal industrial output, ml UAH*	*Rate of real industrial output growth, % (to the same period of the previous year)**	CPI, % change (to December of the previous year)	Consolidated Budget deficit (-) / surplus
	Nominal GDP, ml UAH		Nominal industrial output, ml UAH*		CPI, % change (to December of the previous year)	Total, ml UAH	% to GDP
1996	81519	-10.0	73321.1	-5.1	39.7	-3964.1	-4.9
1997	93365	-3.0	75060.8	-0.3	10.1	-6200.7	-6.6
1998	102593	-1.9	82888.7	-1.0	20.0	-2279.8	-2.2
1999	130442	-0.2	107536.8	4.0	19.2	-1944.5	-1.5
2000	170070	5.9	160754.8	13.2	25.8	969.3	0.6
2001	201927	9.1	184275.9	14.2	6.1	-593.4	-0.3

Jan-01	13616	9.1	12234.4	21.5	1.5	1404.3	10.3
Feb-01	27336	7.6	24372.4	17.2	2.1	1819.2	6.7
Mar-01	40480	8.2	37473.1	17.8	2.7	1324.0	3.3
Apr-01	58584	8.5	50187.9	18.7	4.3	1492.9	2.5
May-01	74688	9.0	63197.6	19.1	4.7	1623.6	2.2
Jun-01	87060	9.9	75952.0	18.8	5.3	1360.0	1.6
Jul-01	111225	10.5	89081.4	18.0	3.5	1676.6	1.5
Aug-01	132613	10.8	102097.2	17.1	3.3	1407.5	1.1
Sep-01	147491	10.5	114794.6	16.7	3.7	1379.7	0.9
Oct-01	170427	9.1	129079.5	16.2	3.9	1616.2	0.9
Nov-01	188548	9.0	142620.2	15.4	4.5	982.4	0.5
Dec-01	201927	9.1	184275.9	14.2	6.1	-593.4	-0.3

Jan-02	14128	3.2	12154.2	1.7	1.0	1381.7	9.8
Feb-02	27540	3.6	24320.5	3.5	-0.4	1516.6	5.5
Mar-02	43699	4.1	37699.1	3.1	-1.1	660.6	1.5
Apr-02	58544	4.1	51085.0	3.5	0.3	564.2	1.0
May-02	75624	3.8	64319.7	3.1	0.0	1626.6	2.2
Jun-02	93592	4.4	78069.0	5.8	-1.8	1366.6	1.5
Jul-02	112818	4.4	92309.0	6.1	-3.3	1851.7	1.6
Aug-02	136292	4.2	106847.9	5.9	-3.5	2409.7	1.8
Sep-02	155335	4.1	121922.5	6.0	-3.3	2716.7	1.7

Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

* - from 2000 – by types of economic activity

** - annual data is presented by monthly average rates of change

Monetary base, ml UAH	Trade balance of goods and services, (ml USD)	Exchange rate (average for the period)		Retail commodity turnover		Income per capita, UAH. (average for the period)	Nominal average wages, UAH*
Monetary base, ml UAH	Trade balance of goods and services, (ml USD)	(UAH/ 100 USD)	(UAH/ 100 Euro)	ml UAH	%	Income per capita, UAH. (average for the period)	Nominal average wages, UAH*
4882	339	182.95		17344	94.9	788.7	125.84	1996
7058	424	186.17		18933	100.2	987.6	143.13	1997
8625	351	244.95		19317	93.4	1081.0	153.49	1998
11988	2236	413.04	439.33	22151	92.9	1239.6	177.52	1999
16780	2952	544.02	502.88	28757	108.1	1755.6	230.13	2000
23055	2886	537.21	481.36	34417	114.0	2247.5	311.62	2001

15951		543.31	510.40	2286.3	111.0	124.9	253.39	Jan-01
16318		542.96	500.31	4560.1	107.3	149.4	263.66	Feb-01
16742	826	542.14	493.90	7324.2	109.7	166.1	281.03	Mar-01
17834		541.82	483.24	9984.4	110.0	173.4	288.93	Apr-01
17571		541.37	475.35	12703.2	111.8	166.2	302.96	May-01
18998	1750	540.12	460.89	15461.0	110.4	183.2	317.81	Jun-01
19219		537.11	461.71	18476.1	111.6	189.6	327.31	Jul-01
20520		534.67	480.67	21499.4	111.6	204.1	329.33	Aug-01
20434	2365	533.90	486.85	24533.4	111.8	188.0	326.34	Sep-01
21850		531.03	480.86	27725.7	111.9	208.4	335.75	Oct-01
22139		528.73	470.26	30696.1	112.3	204.3	334.44	Nov-01
23055	2886	529.43	481.36	34050.2	112.6	249.8	378.45	Dec-01

23428		531.26	469.65	2630.9	118.1	180.7	320.76	Jan-02
23854		532.10	463.00	5259.3	118.7	201.3	328.70	Feb-02
25076	952	532.23	465.98	8206.6	116.8	228.3	354.81	Mar-02
25976		532.74	471.23	11328.3	118.0	253.8	355.78	Apr-02
25761		532.79	486.54	14467.6	118.1	241.3	358.88	May-02
26227	1716	532.93	505.98	17520.0	116.1	249.9	377.41	Jun-02
28279		532.88	528.81	20958.3	115.9	364.9	398.10	Jul-02
28938		532.91	521.11	24432.1	115.5	342.2	390.07	Aug-02
29158	2650	532.95	522.94	27833.2	114.8	...	391.14	Sep-02

Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

^{1) – as of December 5, 2001, based on the Ukrainian Population Census data}