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RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report Vol. 3, No. 6, 20 February 2001

A Survey of Developments in Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine by the Regional Specialists of RFE/RL's Newsline Team

CITIZENS' PLATFORM TO DRAW UP ELECTION LISTS IN PRIMARIES. Andrzej Olechowski, Maciej Plazynski, and Donald Tusk -- leaders of the Citizens' Platform (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report," 23 January 2001) -- introduced some 30 regional representatives of their organization to the public in Warsaw on 18 February. According to opinion polls, the centrist, liberal Citizens' Platform (PO) is supported by 16-17 percent of the electorate and stands a good chance of gaining strong representation in the parliament.

The PO leaders want to prepare their election lists on the basis of regional electoral conventions. The PO's 41 regional representatives (Olechowski, Plazynski, and Tusk expect that a new election law will divide the country into 41 electoral districts) are to choose 1,000 electors each in their regions to hold local conventions in order to draw up lists of PO candidates for parliamentary elections due this fall. Subsequently the lists are to be submitted for approval by the three PO leaders.

According to Plazynski, such a way for drawing up election lists will be radically different from how other political parties propose candidates for election campaigns.

Plazynski noted: "We want to transform our political [initiative] into a political party. We are beginning to build a party, but [this construction] will initially be approved by voters.... This is the proposal that should bring a different quality into political life, ensure the real influence of all [PO] supporters on the shaping of election lists, and on our future [parliamentary] representation."

(Last week, Plazynski, who is parliamentary speaker, officially resigned from the Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS) parliamentary caucus headed by Marian Krzaklewski. Plazynski said he is not going to resign from the post of Sejm speaker despite his departure from the AWS. "Politicians are free to make decisions: the Sejm appoints the speaker and the Sejm can dismiss him. Nothing has happened here. After all, those political proposals I support do not clash with the fact that I am Sejm speaker. I think that Poland needs these proposals," he commented to Polish Radio. Krzaklewski thinks that since the AWS proposed Plazynski for the post of Sejm speaker, Plazynski should step down from it after quitting the party.)

Donald Tusk sharply criticized a recently discussed draft bill under which political parties are to be financed from the state budget in order to avoid bribery and corruption in Poland's political life. According to Tusk, the bill is "either naive or hypocritical, or both."

Tusk pledged: "We oblige ourselves publicly, regardless of the shape of the bill [on financing political parties], that we will not...draw money from the taxpayers' pockets [for the PO]. Even if the bill will is prepared so as to give big money to political organizations, we will adopt such a formula for our action so as not to take that money."

UKRAINE

WILL KUCHMA SURVIVE? It seems that he will. This month's two strongest anti-Kuchma protests gathered some 5,000 people each and both of them were held in Kyiv. There were some anti-Kuchma protests in the provinces within the past month but they gathered several hundred people as a maximum. As some Ukrainian commentators say, what is really wrong about Ukraine is not Kuchma's authoritarian rule and his responsibility for allegedly ordering the murder of an independent journalist but the fact that most Ukrainians do not care about who rules them and how.

Ukraine's current political unrest was provoked by Kuchma's former bodyguard, Mykola Melnychenko, who bugged the president's office for several months and subsequently publicized the tapes allegedly proving the complicity of Kuchma and other top officials in the disappearance of independent journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, an outspoken critic of the ruling regime before he disappeared on 16 September last year.

Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz publicized the Melnychenko tapes on 28 November. It is now almost three months since the Gongadze case made headlines in the Ukrainian and world press, but nothing has been actually clarified since then.

Officially, a body found near Kyiv and widely believed to be Gongadze's was identified by genetic tests as Gongadze's only "to the extent of 99.6 percent." And this means, that Gongadze is not dead from the legal point of view. As Gongadze's wife told the Ekho Moskvy radio station, "if there is no crime, then there is no perpetrator of the crime."

Officially, the Melnychenko tapes are believed to be a fake. The Prosecutor-General's Office in an enigmatic statement early this month (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report," 6 February 2001) said some conversations on the tapes actually took place but on the whole the tapes were "compiled from separate words and fragments, which is essentially a falsification." Kuchma flatly denied any involvement in the disappearance of Gongadze, telling the "Financial Times" that he did not even know the journalist. He said the bugging scandal was staged by a "well-organized force" with "a great deal of money and capabilities" but failed to identify that force.

Some 60 lawmakers and opposition politicians set up a Forum for National Salvation with the aim of impeaching Kuchma and transforming Ukraine into a parliamentarypresidential or even parliamentary republic. But the group has so far failed to muster any significant support outside Kyiv. The authorities counterattacked by arresting former Deputy Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko, a prominent member of the Forum, on charges of bribery, tax evasion, and document forgery.

Kuchma simply shrugged off the current antipresidential protests in Ukraine, saying he does not see any "civilized" opposition to himself within the framework of "Ukraine Without Kuchma" rallies. This statement may mean, among other things, that he is now ready to use not quite "civilized" means to deal with his opponents. As for the Forum for National Salvation, Kuchma said in a written statement that the group is not seeking salvation for the nation but "for themselves from political bankruptcy and oblivion...[and] criminal responsibility." Many were shocked that this statement was also signed by Premier Viktor Yushchenko, who has so far preserved the image of an independent politician, apparently not involved in shady economic deals or dirty political games in Ukraine. The Forum for National Salvation cried that Yushchenko's siding with Kuchma "contradicts both God's and human laws." This may be, incidentally, true, but Yushchenko's decision surely does not contradict the common sense of a man who is in a top place and wants to remain there as long as possible. He is 46 now, and some 50 percent of Ukrainians believe he stands a good chance to become Ukraine's next president. If Kuchma dismissed him now, his prospects to remain in the spotlight until next presidential elections would be rather uncertain.

Why may Kuchma survive the current political unrest virtually unscathed? Because neither the West nor Russia actually wants him to step down. Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent talks with Kuchma in Dnipropetrovsk signaled to many that Moscow wants to extend a helping hand to the Ukrainian president in order to seek some profits for Russia in Ukraine from the bugging scandal. The West, which has been carefully portioning its financial and moral support to Kuchma in a bid to prevent Ukraine from siding with Russia too strongly, may be somewhat baffled as to what to do now. However, the fact that there has so far not been even a hint of disapproval from major Western leaders for how Kuchma is behaving means only one thing: the West wants him to survive and continue his course.

Paradoxically, one of the victims of the bugging scandal may be Ukraine's moderate nationalist right wing, which supports Kuchma politically in the parliament in the so-called parliamentary majority. Why "national democrats" support Kuchma is obvious though, perhaps, not too often stated by commentators: because the "national democrats" traded their support for former Communist Party apparatchik Kuchma for his agreement to "Ukrainianize" Ukraine -- to establish a truly Ukrainian education system, first of all. Arguably, nobody will deny that building the Ukrainian nation not only in the corridors of powers but also in people's minds is worthy of some political sacrifices and compromises. But now a question has appeared: Is it not one compromise too far?

"The present model of an authoritarian presidential republic in Ukraine has not justified itself. Unlimited presidential power did not bring prosperity to the people. Instead, it became a source of unlimited arbitrariness, corruption, and constant social instability." -- The centrist Sobor Party in a resolution on 18 February; quoted by Interfax.

RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report is prepared by Jan Maksymiuk on the basis of a variety of sources including reporting by "RFE/RL Newsline" and RFE/RL's broadcast services. It is distributed every Tuesday.

END NOTE: WILL UKRAINE'S PRESIDENT SURVIVE? xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

WILL UKRAINE'S PRESIDENT SURVIVE?

Despite the evidence implicating President Leonid Kuchma in the murder of independent journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, and the protests triggered by those revelations, it seems unlikely that Kuchma's political future is threatened. This month's two strongest anti-Kuchma protests gathered some 5,000 people each and both of them were held in Kyiv. There have some anti-Kuchma protests in the provinces within the past month, but they gathered several hundred people at most. As some Ukrainian commentators say, what is really wrong about Ukraine is not Kuchma's authoritarian rule or his alleged responsibility for ordering Gongadze's murder, but the fact that most Ukrainians do not care about who rules them and how.

Ukraine's current political unrest was provoked by Kuchma's former bodyguard, Mykola Melnychenko, who bugged the president's office for several months last summer and subsequently publicized the tapes allegedly proving the complicity of Kuchma and other top officials in the disappearance of Gongadze, an outspoken critic of the ruling regime, on 16 September last year.

Officially, the Melnychenko tapes have been dismissed as a fake. The Prosecutor-General's Office -- in an enigmatic statement early this month -- said some conversations on the tapes actually took place but on the whole the tapes were "compiled from separate words and fragments, which is essentially a falsification."

Kuchma himself has flatly denied any involvement in the disappearance of Gongadze, telling the "Financial Times" that he did not even know the journalist. He said the bugging scandal was staged by a "well-organized force" with "a great deal of money and capabilities," but failed to identify that force.

Some 60 lawmakers and opposition politicians set up a =46orum for National Salvation earlier this month with the aim of impeaching Kuchma and transforming Ukraine into a parliamentary-presidential or even parliamentary republic. But the group has so far failed to muster any significant support outside Kyiv. The authorities counterattacked by arresting former Deputy Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko, a prominent member of the forum, on charges of bribery, smuggling, tax evasion, and document forgery.

Kuchma has simply shrugged off the current antipresidential protests in Ukraine, saying he does not see any "civilized" opposition to himself within the framework of "Ukraine Without Kuchma" rallies. This statement may mean, among other things, that he is now ready to use not quite "civilized" means to deal with his opponents. As for the =46orum for National Salvation, Kuchma said in a written statement that the group is not seeking salvation for the nation but "for themselves from political bankruptcy and oblivion...[and] criminal responsibility." Many were shocked that this statement was also signed by Premier Viktor Yushchenko, who has so far preserved the image of an independent politician, apparently not involved in shady economic deals or dirty political games in Ukraine. The Forum for National Salvation objected that Yushchenko's siding with Kuchma "contradicts both God's and human laws." This may be, incidentally, true, but Yushchenko's decision surely does not contradict the common sense of a man who occupies a leading position and wants to remain there as long as possible. Yushchenko is now 46, and some 50 percent of Ukrainians believe he stands a good chance of becoming Ukraine's next president. If Kuchma dismissed him now, his prospects of remaining in the spotlight until next presidential elections would be rather uncertain.

How could Kuchma survive the current political unrest virtually unscathed? The answer is very simple: because neither the West nor Russia actually wants him to step down. Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent talks with Kuchma in Dnipropetrovsk signaled to many that Moscow wants to extend a helping hand to the Ukrainian president in order to seek some profits for Russia in Ukraine from the bugging scandal. The West, which has been carefully portioning its financial and moral support to Kuchma in a bid to prevent Ukraine from siding with Russia too strongly, may be somewhat baffled as to what to do now. However, the fact that there has so far not been even a hint of disapproval from major Western leaders for how Kuchma is behaving means only one thing: the West wants him to survive and continue his course.

Paradoxically, one of the victims of the bugging scandal may be Ukraine's moderate nationalist right-wing, which supports Kuchma politically in the parliament in the socalled parliamentary majority. Why "national democrats" support Kuchma is obvious, although commentators perhaps do not always dwell on the reason: because the "national democrats" traded their support for former Communist Party apparatchik Kuchma for his agreement to "Ukrainianize" Ukraine -- to establish a truly Ukrainian education system, first of all. Arguably, nobody will deny that building the Ukrainian nation not only in the corridors of powers but also in people's minds warrants some political sacrifices and compromises. But now the question has arisen: Is this one compromise too many?

END NOTE: WILL UKRAINE'S PRESIDENT SURVIVE? xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

KUCHMA SAYS NO CRISIS IN UKRAINE... President Leonid Kuchma said on 19 February that he "cannot agree with the opinion that is being insistently imposed [on us] that there is a political crisis in Ukraine," Interfax reported. "The parliament and the government are remaining in their places and functioning despite all difficulties," he noted. Kuchma said the atmosphere among Ukraine's top leadership is characterized by "mutual understanding [and] closeness of positions." He added that mutual understanding also "dominates" in relations between the central and regional power bodies. "If someone thinks the crisis is in the excessive activity of some deputies who assumed the role of permanent revolutionaries, this is of course sad, but not lethal," Kuchma told students at Kyiv National University. JM

=2E..PLEDGES TO TAKE 'RESOLUTE ACTION' AGAINST CURRENT UNREST. Kuchma said the current situation "obliges the authorities to take active and resolute actions" as well as "all legal means" to avert threats to Ukraine's national security and stability. He added that he does not consider "those who are shouting in tent cities" constitute a "serious political force." Kuchma said the exit of his current opponents from the political scene "is only a question of time," adding, however, that they will not agree to quit that scene of their own will. "They have neither political principles, nor moral norms, nor anything sacred at all," Kuchma said about his opponents. (See "End Note" below.) JM

UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT WITHOUT PRO-KUCHMA MAJORITY? Oleksandr Turchynov, leader of the Fatherland Party parliamentary caucus, told the parliament on 19 February that the progovernment parliamentary majority "does not exist anymore," Interfax reported. He added that his caucus is ready to form a "new realistic majority that would be able to protect democratic reforms and do everything possible to overcome the socioeconomic and political crisis." Asked by speaker Ivan Plyushch if his statement means that the Fatherland Party is quitting the parliamentary majority, Turchynov said "we cannot quit the majority because it does not exist." The Ukrainian parliament currently has 448 deputies. The progovernment majority, formed a year ago, consisted of 278 deputies, including 32 from the Fatherland Party. Following the sacking of Yuliya Tymoshenko from the cabinet last month, the Fatherland Party has begun to oppose presidential policies. JM

POLAND, GAZPROM REPORTEDLY REACH AGREEMENT ON YAMAL GAS PIPELINE. The Polish government and Gazprom head Rem Vyakhirev have reached an agreement on EuroPolGaz, the company that runs the Polish section of the Yamal gas pipeline, Polish Radio reported on 19 February. The station, however, did not provide details of the deal. The Polish Oil and Gas Extraction Company (controlled by the Polish government) and Gazprom each have a 48-percent stake in EuroPolGaz. Deputy Prime Minister Janusz Steinhoff said that the Polish government will continue talks with Gazprom about the controversy around the fiber optic cable that runs along the Polish section of the Yamal gas pipeline (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report," 21 November 2000). JM

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT'S MOLDOVAN VISIT POSTPONED... President Petru Lucinschi's office announced on 19 February that a "working visit" by Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma has been postponed, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The visit should have started on 20 February. As grounds for the postponement, the presidential office mentioned the need for the two sides' teams of experts to "better prepare the summit" and particularly the planned meeting of the joint commission on Moldovan-Ukrainian cooperation. No new date was set. Infotag cites "observers" who believe the main reason for postponing the visit is the internal situation in Ukraine. MS

=2E..AS IS OSCE BRATISLAVA MEETING ON TRANSDNIESTER CONFLICT. The OSCE-organized meeting of the state commissions from Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia on solving the Transdniester conflict, planned for 20-21 February in Bratislava, has been postponed for one week, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The Moldovan commission's chairman, Vasile Sturza, said one of the reasons for the postponement was the intended visit to Moldova by Ukrainian President Kuchma, which has since been postponed. Sturza hinted that another reason was the position of the Tiraspol authorities, who earlier asked that the meeting be postponed until after the 25 February parliamentary elections in Moldova. MS

WILL UKRAINE'S PRESIDENT SURVIVE?