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RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report Vol. 3, No. 28, 24 July 2001

A Survey of Developments in Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine by the Regional Specialists of RFE/RL's Newsline Team

OPPOSITION HOPEFULS UNITE AROUND SINGLE CHALLENGER TO LUKASHENKA. Four politicians supported by the Belarusian opposition -- Mikhail Chyhir, Syamyon Domash, Syarhey Kalyakin, and Pavel Kazlouski -- said on 21 July that they will withdraw from the presidential race and form a united campaign behind Uladzimir Hancharyk, the head of the Trade Union Federation of Belarus, Belapan reported. In this way, the five complied with their earlier pledge to propose a single candidate from a broad coalition of democratic and opposition forces in a bid to oust dictatorial President Alyaksandr Lukashenka. According Belapan, if the Central Election Commission refuses to register Hancharyk as a presidential candidate, the role of a single democratic candidate will be assumed by Domash. The agency also reported that if Hancharyk wins the September presidential elections, he will call on Domash to form a new government.

"Today's decision has removed a heavy burden from all of us," Stanislau Shushkevich, Belarus's head of state in the early 1990s, commented to Belapan regarding the five's decision to field Hancharyk against Lukashenka. "Now we should unite and work together for the man who has been trusted by the five to be No. 1. I call on all activists of all opposition parties to give up party and personal ambitions and work in team for Uladzimir Ivanavich Hancharyk," Shushkevich added.

Vintsuk Vyachorka, the leader of the Belarusian Popular Front (BNF), said Hancharyk should immediately take steps toward consolidation of opposition political forces in Belarus. "We expect Mr. Hancharyk to make unambiguous statements about his attitude toward Belarus's independence and return to the democratic path of development, the separation of power branches, economic reform, the Belarusian people's national and cultural future. This will determine the degree of the participation of the BNF, the country's largest democratic organization, in the presidential campaign of Uladzimir Hancharyk."

Meanwhile, the Central Election Commission said on 23 July that, according to "preliminary data," only four aspirants out of the 22 who collected signatures (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report," 19 June 2001) -- Lukashenka, Hancharyk, Domash, and Syarhey Haydukevich -- managed to supply the minimum of 100,000 signatures required for the registration as presidential candidates.

According to the 2001 presidential election schedule, between 21 July and 4 August local election commissions will verify the validity of signatures collected by aspirants seeking to register as presidential candidates. The Central Electoral Commission will register eligible candidates between 5 and 14 August.

According to a poll held by Belapan among 500 Minsk residents from 10-13 July, only 33 percent or respondents said Belarusian voters will have a "decisive influence" on determining the results of the 2001 presidential elections. Thirty-one percent said these results will be determined by the authorities, while 10 percent felt that Russia will have a decisive say in the presidential ballot.

UKRAINE

YUSHCHENKO'S BLOC AND OTHER BLOCS. On 15 July, from atop Ukraine's highest peak, Hoverlya in the Carpathian Mountains, former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko announced the formation of an electoral bloc named Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine) and called on pro-reformist, democratically minded, and nationally conscious forces to join it. Some 2,000 members of Ukraine's two Rukhs and the Reform and Order Party, as well as journalists, climbed Hoverlya to mark the 11th anniversary of Ukraine's sovereignty and listen to Yushchenko's announcement.

Yushchenko's announcement had been impatiently awaited in Ukraine since 26 April, when he was voted out of his post as prime minister jointly by the Communists and oligarchical groups in the parliament. Shortly after the vote of no confidence, Yushchenko addressed his supporters outside the parliamentary building, pledging to return to politics soon.

Yushchenko said on 15 July that he wants Our Ukraine to win next year's parliamentary elections and form a government. The bloc and its manifesto are to be forged this fall. Yushchenko named no specific forces during his 15 July pronouncement, but its is already clear that Our Ukraine will include the Popular Rukh of Ukraine (Hennadiy Udovenko's wing), the Ukrainian Popular Rukh (Yuriy Kostenko's wing), and the Reform and Order Party of Viktor Pynzenyk. Most likely, the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists will also join Our Ukraine.

Yushchenko is Ukraine's most popular and most trusted politician. A recent poll by the GfK-USM polling center found that if presidential election had been held in July, Yushchenko would have obtained 32.4 percent of the vote. The same poll found that Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko would have been backed by 17.4 percent of voters, and incumbent President Leonid Kuchma by 10.2 percent. It is no wonder that the bloc headed by the former premier is tipped by most Ukrainian commentators to win a significant parliamentary representation.

It is difficult to make any predictions regarding Our Ukraine's election chances some eight months before the election date, but it is already clear that Yushchenko must look for more allies in order to build a force that would be able to control the future parliament. As of now, he may be sure of voters' support in western Ukraine, where both Rukhs have most of their adherents. But in Ukraine the political climate is defined not by the traditionally nationalist western areas of the country, but by the heavily populated and industrialized east. As of now, Yushchenko appears to have little leverage, if any, in the east. There is a danger that his personal popularity may not help Our Ukraine's candidates in eastern constituencies.

Yushchenko has apparently decided not to confront President Kuchma directly, so he rejected suggestions to join and head the anti-Kuchma opposition grouped in the National Salvation Forum (FNP) and the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement. Therefore, the recently created FNP election committee -- the Fatherland Party, the Sobor Party, the Social-Democratic Party, the Republican Party, the Conservative Republican Party, and the Republican Party -- will most likely compete for parliamentary seats with Yushchenko's people. True, Yuliya Tymoshenko, a former close associate of Yushchenko in his cabinet and currently the head of the NFP election committee, said her bloc is going to propose "peaceful coexistence or cooperation" to Yushchenko. But it is difficult to see how such a goal can be achieved in practice, especially as both Our Ukraine and the FNP heavily rely on voting support in western Ukraine.

Following in Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's footsteps, other groups have also announced their political alliances for the 2002 ballot. Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz said his party will make an election alliance with the AllUkrainian Party of Working People, the Social Democratic Party, the Party for the Protection of Farmers' Interests, and the Greens of the 21st Century Party. The pro-Kuchma parties -- the Agrarian Party, the Popular Democratic Party, the Party of Regions, and the Labor Ukraine Party -- signed a declaration to create a joint election bloc. Ivan Chyzh, the leader of the All-Ukrainian Association of Leftist "Justice" (and former associate of Moroz), announced that he is currently negotiating the construction of a "very original and very powerful" election bloc. And two pro-Russian parties are working to create a separate coalition named the Russian Bloc for the 2002 parliamentary elections.

One should also remember that there is the powerful Communist Party in Ukraine, with voter approval not below 20 percent. And there are two influential oligarchical parties, the Social Democratic Party (United) and the Democratic Union, which, according to popular opinion, possess big administrative, financial, and media leverage in Ukrainian politics. Thus, Yushchenko faces an uphill task of building and promoting his bloc in Ukraine's political arena. The initial conditions for his initiative are auspicious. According to some analysts, Our Ukraine can count on some 23 percent support among the electorate as of now, which means that the planned bloc is already the country's most popular political force. But the election campaign has not yet started. And this also means that Yushchenko's rivals have not yet started to work toward undermining his political clout.

"Viktor Yushchenko confirmed his reputation as a man inclined to putting on a big show: To announce the creation of his bloc on the Hoverlya peak was a lofty act in every sense of the word. But he also remained true to another trait of his's: His description of the goals of the new bloc [Our Ukraine]...was, as usual, bombastic and somewhat complicated. So, typically, nobody has understood anything -- including those who have already joined Our Ukraine." -- The Kyiv-based weekly "Zerkalo nedeli" on 21 July.

"RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report" is prepared by Jan Maksymiuk on the basis of a variety of sources including reporting by "RFE/RL Newsline" and RFE/RL's broadcast services. It is distributed every Tuesday.

NATO GENERAL OPENS CHORNOBYL VICTIMS CENTER IN BELARUS. U.S. General Joseph Ralston, the commander in chief of NATO forces in Europe, inaugurated a U.S.-funded blood transfusion center in Homel, southeastern Belarus, on 23 July, Western and Belarusian agencies reported. The U.S. armed forces donated $400,000 for the center, which is to treat people affected by the Chornobyl nuclear disaster. "Let this hospital be a symbol of what we can achieve when we work together as partners towards a common cause and common good," Reuters quoted Ralston as saying in Homel. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to Belarus Michael Kozak said in Homel that the U.S. is ready to normalize relations with Belarus if Minsk honors its commitments to the OSCE, Belapan reported. Kozak said that U.S. assistance to Belarus is directly dependent on the country's human rights record and compliance with international standards for free and fair elections. JM

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT AGREES TO CHANGE CRIMEAN PREMIER. Leonid Kuchma has approved the recent dismissal of Crimean Autonomous Republic Premier Serhiy Kunitsyn (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 and 23 July 2001) and agreed to the proposal by Crimea's Supreme Council to appoint Valeriy Horbatov as the new head of the Crimean cabinet, Interfax reported on 23 July. Presidential spokesman Oleksandr Martynenko said Kuchma made his decision in order to harmonize cooperation between the legislative and executive branches on the peninsula. The feuding between Kunitsyn and Crimean parliamentary speaker Leonid Hrach has gone on for two years. Horbatov is a deputy of the Ukrainian parliament. In 1994-96, he was Kuchma's permanent representative in Crimea. JM

UKRAINIAN EX-PREMIER HIT BY MORE U.S. CHARGES. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Northern District of California has said a federal grand jury has added a wire fraud charge to a 53-count indictment against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko, AP and Reuters reported on 23 July. Lazarenko -- who has been charged with embezzlement in Ukraine, money laundering in Switzerland, and conspiracy in the United States -- is now being held in a federal prison outside San Francisco. Last year, a Swiss court convicted Lazarenko in absentia of money laundering, handing down an 18-month suspended sentence and confiscating nearly $6.6 million from his Swiss bank accounts. Lazarenko is suspected of illegally transferring a total of $320 million from Ukraine to the U.S. JM

RUSSIA'S ALEKSII II NOT INVITED TO RELIGIOUS CELEBRATION IN KYIV? Metropolitan Kirill, a high official in the Russian Orthodox Church, told journalists in Kyiv on 23 July that Russian Orthodox Church head Aleksii II has not obtained an official invitation to attend the 950th anniversary of the Kyiv-Pechersk Monastery on 28 August, Interfax reported. Last week the agency quoted Kyiv Mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko as saying that Patriarch Aleksii II will be invited by Metropolitan Volodymyr, the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate). JM

On 15 July, from atop Ukraine's highest peak, Hoverlya in the Carpathian Mountains, former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko announced the formation of an electoral bloc named Nasha Ukrayina (Our Ukraine) and called on pro-reformist, democratically minded, and nationally conscious forces to join it. Some 2,000 members of Ukraine's two Rukh parties and the Reform and Order Party as well as journalists climbed Hoverlya to mark the 11th anniversary of Ukraine's sovereignty and listen to Yushchenko's announcement.

Yushchenko said on 15 July that he wants Our Ukraine to win next year's parliamentary elections and form a government. The bloc and its manifesto are to be forged this fall. Yushchenko named no specific forces during his 15 July pronouncement, but it is already clear that Our Ukraine will include the Popular Rukh of Ukraine (Hennadiy Udovenko's wing), the Ukrainian Popular Rukh (Yuriy Kostenko's wing), and the Reform and Order Party of Viktor Pynzenyk. Most likely, the Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists will also join Our Ukraine.

Yushchenko is Ukraine's most popular and most trusted politician. A recent poll by the GfK-USM polling center found that if a presidential election had been held in July, Yushchenko would have obtained 32.4 percent of the vote. The same poll found that Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko would have been backed by 17.4 percent of voters, and incumbent President Leonid Kuchma by 10.2 percent. It is no wonder that the bloc headed by the former premier is tipped by most Ukrainian commentators to win a significant parliamentary representation.

Yushchenko has apparently decided not to confront President Kuchma directly, therefore he rejected invitations to join and head the antiKuchma opposition grouped in the National Salvation Forum (FNP) and the Ukraine Without Kuchma movement. Therefore, the recently created FNP election committee -- the Fatherland Party, the Sobor Party, the SocialDemocratic Party, the Republican Party, the Conservative Republican Party, and the Republican Party -- will most likely compete for parliamentary seats with Yushchenko's people. True, Yuliya Tymoshenko, a former close associate of Yushchenko in his cabinet and currently the head of the NFP election committee, said her bloc is going to propose "peaceful coexistence or cooperation" to Yushchenko. But it is difficult to see how such a goal can be achieved in practice, especially as both Our Ukraine and the FNP heavily rely on voting support in western Ukraine.

Following in Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's footsteps, other groups have also announced their political alliances for the 2002 ballot. Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz said his party will forge an election alliance with the All-Ukrainian Party of Working People, the Social Democratic Party, the Party for the Protection of Farmers' Interests, and the Greens of the 21st Century Party. The pro-Kuchma parties -- the Agrarian Party, the Popular Democratic Party, the Party of Regions, and the Labor Ukraine Party -- signed a declaration to create a joint election bloc. Ivan Chyzh, the leader of the AllUkrainian Association of Leftist "Justice" (and a former associate of Moroz), announced that he is currently negotiating the creation of a "very original and very powerful" election bloc. And two pro-Russian parties are working to create a separate coalition named the Russian Bloc for the 2002 parliamentary elections.

One should also remember just how powerful the Communist Party is in Ukraine, with voter approval not below 20 percent. And there are two influential oligarchical parties, the Social Democratic Party (United) and the Democratic Union, which, according to popular opinion, possess considerable administrative, financial, and media leverage in Ukrainian politics. Thus, Yushchenko faces an uphill task in promoting his bloc in Ukraine's political arena. The initial conditions for his initiative are auspicious. According to some analysts, Our Ukraine can count on some 25 percent support among the electorate as of now, which means that the bloc is the country's most popular political force. But the election campaign has not yet started. And this also means that Yushchenko's rivals have not yet started to work toward undermining his political clout.