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END NOTE: IS MOSCOW HEADING FOR BORDER CONFLICT WITH KYIV? xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
IS MOSCOW HEADING FOR BORDER CONFLICT WITH KYIV?
Earlier this month, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry issued a statement warning the Russian government that the construction of a dam, already under way, between Russia's Taman Peninsula and the islet of Tuzla in the Kerch Strait may violate Ukraine's state-border and territorial integrity. According to some reports in the Ukrainian media, after the construction of the dam, the Russian side plans to construct a frontier post on the islet, which Ukraine considers to be its own territory. In response, the Ukrainian side has reportedly reinforced the islet with a border-guard unit and installed antitank defenses. According to some Russian newspapers, the dam, which is 30 meters wide, is now only 1 kilometer away from the islet.
Kerch Strait is a shallow channel connecting the Azov Sea with the Black Sea and separating Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in the west from Russia's Taman Peninsula in the east. Until 1925, Tuzla was the Tuzla Spit, but a heavy storm that year disconnected it from Russia's Krasnodar Krai, which is inhabited in part by the so-called Kuban Cossacks, relatives to the Ukrainian Cossacks of the past. In 1941, Tuzla became an administrative part of Crimea; in 1954, Crimea was ceded to Soviet Ukraine. Thus, following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine considered Tuzla to be its own territory. A dozen families of fishermen -- Ukrainian citizens -- live on the islet, which also hosts several holiday hotels belonging to the port of Kerch on the Crimean Peninsula. The Tuzla islet is some 7 kilometers long and 500 meters wide.
Ukrainian and Russian media seem to be rather confused as to why the construction of the dam was started and who authorized it. Several versions exist. According to one, the decision was made by an unspecified self-government body of the Kuban Cossacks in the Taman Raion of Krasnodar Krai, who reportedly want to stop water from the Taman Bay mixing with the much saltier water from the Black Sea. The Kuban Cossacks are supposedly concerned with the salinization of their environment, which makes it impossible for them to breed certain species of fish that are used to fresher waters. By this version, the builders of the dam -- who reportedly include a lot of nonsalaried Kuban Cossack activists -- are going to stop their building effort several meters away from Ukraine's border.
But the much-respected "Zerkalo nedeli" weekly in Kyiv suggests a slightly different version: the dam project is secretly supported by local businessmen from Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, who allegedly want to urge both Moscow and Kyiv to build a more solid connection between Crimea and Russia -- a bridge between Tuzla and Kerch. The dam project is reportedly supported by the leader of the Crimean communists, Ukrainian parliamentary deputy Leonid Hrach, who is known for his various ideas to make trade and other contacts between Crimea and Russia more intense. These ideas include not only building a bridge over the Kerch Strait, but also, surprisingly, laying a water pipeline along this bridge. "Zerkalo nedeli" suggests that Hrach may be interested in piping cheap alcohol from Ossetia into Crimea.
However, the Tuzla controversy may also have more serious consequences, of a political, economic, and military nature. First, Ukraine and Russia for many years have been at loggerheads regarding the delimitation of the border in the Azov Sea, in general, and Kerch Strait in particular. More than 100 oil and natural-gas deposits have been discovered in the Azov Sea. Their exploitation by Russia or Ukraine, with no delimitated border between them, carries the potential risk of a full-scale international row over their sea frontier.
Second, Kerch Strait is fairly shallow; big ships can only navigate the strait through an artificially made fairway that is administered and controlled by Crimea's port of Kerch. It is estimated that the Kerch administration takes in up to $180 million annually from the passage of Russian and other ships entering the Azov Sea.
Moreover, the Tuzla islet has a strategic military importance -- as long as Kyiv controls it, it also controls the traffic between the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, including that of naval vessels.
Some Ukrainian politicians and journalists have speculated that the Kremlin has decided to reconnect Tuzla with the Russian mainland and take the islet under its administration, thus gaining more control over the navigation in Kerch Strait. "The Russian action on Tuzla is primarily a test of Ukraine's capability to defend its territorial integrity and an illustration of [Moscow's intent] to swallow Ukraine as a whole -- through the Single Economic Space -- or in parts, [by taking] Tuzla and Sevastopol," Borys Bespalyy, a deputy from the opposition Our Ukraine bloc, told UNIAN.
Some are more cautious in their assessment of the dam controversy, but no less far-sighted. Their view of the controversy derives from a statement by the Krasnodar Krai governor earlier this month, who said on a Russian television channel that the construction of the dam is being carried out following an accord reached between Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during their meeting in September. According to this theory, when the dam is only a few meters from the islet, Kuchma will personally arrive at Tuzla and "order" that the construction be stopped, thus quashing the potential border conflict between the two countries and securing the country's territorial integrity. This version implies a conspiracy between Kuchma and Putin -- allegedly oriented toward boosting Kuchma's rating in Ukraine and making a third presidential term possible for him.
Kuchma said on 6 October that the construction of the dam involves a "misunderstanding" rather than "politics." Asked whether this situation may provoke a border conflict with Russia, Kuchma said he refuses to believe such a development could occur. Last week in Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov about the dam controversy. No details of the talks have been released.
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a statement on 14 October appealing to the Russian parliament to intervene in the construction of the dam in order to stop any "unilateral actions" that may contradict "the spirit of strategic partnership of the two countries." In the event the dam project is continued, the Ukrainian legislature pledged "to initiate all measures envisaged by the norms of international law to protect a state's territorial sovereignty."
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BANNED BELARUSIAN-LANGUAGE SCHOOL IN MINSK CONTINUES TO OPERATE. Students and teachers of the Yakub Kolas National Humanities Lyceum in Minsk, which was closed by authorities in June (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report," 19 August 2003 and "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 September 2003), are continuing their classes "in secret" by meeting at private locations in the Belarusian capital, RFE/RL's Belarusian Service reported on 15 September. "We are studying like we did before, when we were in the lyceum [building]," a student told RFE/RL. "Of course, there are problems with finding a location [for classes]. But we have our former teachers and curriculums." The National Humanities Lyceum was a Western-style educational institution, and the only preparatory school in Belarus that provided instruction in all subjects in the Belarusian language. Its students and teachers have been meeting outside or on various premises since September following an official ban from holding classes in public venues, RFE/RL reported. JM
UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT AGAIN IN DISARRAY. The Verkhovna Rada session on 16 October started with a blockade of the parliamentary rostrum by deputies from the opposition Socialist Party, Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, and Our Ukraine, UNIAN reported. A similar protest was staged by the opposition in the Verkhovna Rada earlier this month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 October 2003). The opposition demanded that the legislature begin voting on bills proposing parliamentary elections under a fully proportional system. The Communist Party caucus did not take part in blocking the rostrum but apparently supports the demand. "The political reform will start only when a law on elections is adopted," Interfax quoted Communist Party head Petro Symonenko as saying. Instead, parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn proposed a vote on a bill establishing the monthly subsistence minimum for 2004, but that vote proved abortive. Only 188 deputies from the pro-presidential majority voted for the bill (226 votes were necessary for passage). JM
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT DISMISSES AMBASSADOR TO POLAND. President Leonid Kuchma has recalled Oleksandr Nykonenko from his post as Ukraine's ambassador to Poland, Interfax reported on 15 October. Nykonenko reportedly attacked and beat a Polish police officer in August after he was detained in Warsaw on suspicion of driving while intoxicated (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 August 2003). JM
IS MOSCOW HEADING FOR BORDER CONFLICT WITH KYIV?
Earlier this month, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry issued a statement warning the Russian government that the construction of a dam, already under way, between Russia's Taman Peninsula and the islet of Tuzla in the Kerch Strait may violate Ukraine's state-border and territorial integrity. According to some reports in the Ukrainian media, after the construction of the dam, the Russian side plans to construct a frontier post on the islet, which Ukraine considers to be its own territory. In response, the Ukrainian side has reportedly reinforced the islet with a border-guard unit and installed antitank defenses. According to some Russian newspapers, the dam, which is 30 meters wide, is now only 1 kilometer away from the islet.
Kerch Strait is a shallow channel connecting the Azov Sea with the Black Sea and separating Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in the west from Russia's Taman Peninsula in the east. Until 1925, Tuzla was the Tuzla Spit, but a heavy storm that year disconnected it from Russia's Krasnodar Krai, which is inhabited in part by the so-called Kuban Cossacks, relatives to the Ukrainian Cossacks of the past. In 1941, Tuzla became an administrative part of Crimea; in 1954, Crimea was ceded to Soviet Ukraine. Thus, following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Ukraine considered Tuzla to be its own territory. A dozen families of fishermen -- Ukrainian citizens -- live on the islet, which also hosts several holiday hotels belonging to the port of Kerch on the Crimean Peninsula. The Tuzla islet is some 7 kilometers long and 500 meters wide.
Ukrainian and Russian media seem to be rather confused as to why the construction of the dam was started and who authorized it. Several versions exist. According to one, the decision was made by an unspecified self-government body of the Kuban Cossacks in the Taman Raion of Krasnodar Krai, who reportedly want to stop water from the Taman Bay mixing with the much saltier water from the Black Sea. The Kuban Cossacks are supposedly concerned with the salinization of their environment, which makes it impossible for them to breed certain species of fish that are used to fresher waters. By this version, the builders of the dam -- who reportedly include a lot of nonsalaried Kuban Cossack activists -- are going to stop their building effort several meters away from Ukraine's border.
But the much-respected "Zerkalo nedeli" weekly in Kyiv suggests a slightly different version: the dam project is secretly supported by local businessmen from Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, who allegedly want to urge both Moscow and Kyiv to build a more solid connection between Crimea and Russia -- a bridge between Tuzla and Kerch. The dam project is reportedly supported by the leader of the Crimean communists, Ukrainian parliamentary deputy Leonid Hrach, who is known for his various ideas to make trade and other contacts between Crimea and Russia more intense. These ideas include not only building a bridge over the Kerch Strait, but also, surprisingly, laying a water pipeline along this bridge. "Zerkalo nedeli" suggests that Hrach may be interested in piping cheap alcohol from Ossetia into Crimea.
However, the Tuzla controversy may also have more serious consequences, of a political, economic, and military nature. First, Ukraine and Russia for many years have been at loggerheads regarding the delimitation of the border in the Azov Sea, in general, and Kerch Strait in particular. More than 100 oil and natural-gas deposits have been discovered in the Azov Sea. Their exploitation by Russia or Ukraine, with no delimitated border between them, carries the potential risk of a full-scale international row over their sea frontier.
Second, Kerch Strait is fairly shallow; big ships can only navigate the strait through an artificially made fairway that is administered and controlled by Crimea's port of Kerch. It is estimated that the Kerch administration takes in up to $180 million annually from the passage of Russian and other ships entering the Azov Sea.
Moreover, the Tuzla islet has a strategic military importance -- as long as Kyiv controls it, it also controls the traffic between the Black Sea and the Azov Sea, including that of naval vessels.
Some Ukrainian politicians and journalists have speculated that the Kremlin has decided to reconnect Tuzla with the Russian mainland and take the islet under its administration, thus gaining more control over the navigation in Kerch Strait. "The Russian action on Tuzla is primarily a test of Ukraine's capability to defend its territorial integrity and an illustration of [Moscow's intent] to swallow Ukraine as a whole -- through the Single Economic Space -- or in parts, [by taking] Tuzla and Sevastopol," Borys Bespalyy, a deputy from the opposition Our Ukraine bloc, told UNIAN.
Some are more cautious in their assessment of the dam controversy, but no less far-sighted. Their view of the controversy derives from a statement by the Krasnodar Krai governor earlier this month, who said on a Russian television channel that the construction of the dam is being carried out following an accord reached between Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during their meeting in September. According to this theory, when the dam is only a few meters from the islet, Kuchma will personally arrive at Tuzla and "order" that the construction be stopped, thus quashing the potential border conflict between the two countries and securing the country's territorial integrity. This version implies a conspiracy between Kuchma and Putin -- allegedly oriented toward boosting Kuchma's rating in Ukraine and making a third presidential term possible for him.
Kuchma said on 6 October that the construction of the dam involves a "misunderstanding" rather than "politics." Asked whether this situation may provoke a border conflict with Russia, Kuchma said he refuses to believe such a development could occur. Last week in Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Hryshchenko spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov about the dam controversy. No details of the talks have been released.
The Verkhovna Rada adopted a statement on 14 October appealing to the Russian parliament to intervene in the construction of the dam in order to stop any "unilateral actions" that may contradict "the spirit of strategic partnership of the two countries." In the event the dam project is continued, the Ukrainian legislature pledged "to initiate all measures envisaged by the norms of international law to protect a state's territorial sovereignty."