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END NOTE: WILL UKRAINE SPLIT IN WAKE OF DIVISIVE BALLOT? xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS NEW ADMINISTRATION CHIEF, PROSECUTOR GENERAL. Alyaksandr Lukashenka on 29 November issued a decree appointing Viktar Sheyman head of the presidential administration, Belapan reported. Sheyman will replace Ural Latypau, who was dismissed. Latypau, 53, who was a KGB officer in the Soviet era, served under Lukashenka as presidential aide for foreign-policy matters (1994-98), foreign minister (1998-2000), and secretary of the Security Council (2000-2001). Sheyman, who served as prosecutor-general until his current appointment, is among a select few of Lukashenka's aides who have remained with him since Lukashenka became president in 1994. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe suspects Sheyman of planning the disappearances of several opponents of the Lukashenka regime in 1999-2000 (see "RFE/RL Belarus and Ukraine Report," 10 August 2000). Pyotr Miklashevich, until now first deputy chairman of the Supreme Court, will replace Sheyman in the post of prosecutor-general. JM

YUSHCHENKO DEMANDS RESIGNATION OF UKRAINIAN CABINET... Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko demanded in the Verkhovna Rada on 30 November that the government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych resign because of its responsibility for encouraging calls for regional autonomy in the east of the country, provoking a budgetary crisis, and perpetrating election fraud during the 21 November presidential runoff vote, Ukrainian media reported. The Verkhovna Rada failed to pass a resolution on "anticonstitutional actions and manifestations of separatism that threatens Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," which also provided for the dismissal of Yanukovych's government and Prosecutor-General Hennadiy Vasylyev. The resolution was supported by 196 deputies (226 were required for approval); pro-Yanukovych deputies and the Communist Party parliamentary caucus did not take part in the vote. JM

...AS UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT REVERTS ITS CRITICAL RESOLUTION ON PRESIDENTIAL VOTE. The Verkhovna Rada on 30 November voted to cancel its 27 November resolution branding the 21 November presidential vote as having taken place "with violations of the law and does not reflect the will of the citizens" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 November 2004), UNIAN reported. The move was supported by 232 deputies from the pro-government parliamentary groups and the Communist Party. JM

YANUKOVYCH WANTS YUSHCHENKO TO BE PREMIER UNDER HIS PRESIDENCY. Prime Minister Yanukovych said on 30 November that if he is confirmed as president he will propose the post of prime minister to opposition leader Yushchenko and will support a constitutional reform redistributing the balance of powers in Ukraine, UNIAN reported. "I am ready to offer Viktor Andriyovych [Yushchenko] the post of prime minister, which will in fact become the top position of duty in our country under the new constitution, so he can form a government together with a coalition," Yanukovych said. JM

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT COULD ACCEPT NEW PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION... Leonid Kuchma said during a meeting with Prime Minister Yanukovych, parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, as well as some cabinet ministers and local governors in Kyiv on 29 November that a new presidential election could be a way out of the ongoing conflict over the results of the 21 November presidential runoff in Ukraine, Ukrainian media reported. "If we really want to preserve peace and harmony, if we really want to build a democratic society based on the rule of law...then let us go the legal route, let us organize new elections," he said. Simultaneously, Kuchma said that he is not planning to be a candidate in such elections. JM

...WHILE PREMIER SUGGESTS REPEAT VOTE IN TWO REGIONS. Prime Minister Yanukovych on 29 November declared that he would agree to stage a new presidential vote in two regions if mass fraud were proven to have taken place in the 21 November runoff, as alleged by his rival, Ukrainian and international news agencies reported. "If chaos, this lawlessness, this violation of human rights, violation of all democratic norms goes ahead and...a decision is taken, even this illegal decision about a repeat vote in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions -- let it happen," Reuters quoted Yanukovych as saying. JM

UKRAINIAN SUPREME COURT ADDRESSES ELECTION CONTROVERSY. The Supreme Court on 29 November began hearing complaints by the election staff of Yushchenko that election authorities resorted to massive fraud to award victory in the 21 November runoff to his rival, Premier Yanukovych, Ukrainian media reported. Last week the Supreme Court barred the publication of the official election results, thus preventing the official winner, Yanukovych, from being inaugurated as president (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 November 2004). It is not clear when the court may announce its ruling on the election dispute. JM

UKRAINIAN CRISIS CAUSES RUN ON BANK DEPOSITS. Ukrainian National Bank acting head Arseniy Yatsenyuk told Reuters on 29 November that the ongoing controversy over the results of the 21 November presidential runoff in Ukraine has fuelled a run on bank deposits. "We decided to satisfy everybody's needs in order to convince people that all deposits will be paid," Yatsenyuk added. Earlier the same day, President Kuchma expressed his apprehension that Ukraine's financial system may collapse "like a house of cards in several days' time" because of the current political crisis. JM

UKRAINIAN NATIONAL BANK CHIEF RESIGNS, PLEDGES TO GO FOR POLITICS. Serhiy Tihipko on 29 November resigned as head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukrainian media reported. "Now, in my opinion, it is impossible to combine positions of NBU governor and [Labor Ukraine] party leader," Tyhipko told journalists. "I will concentrate fully on politics." Tihipko, who was manager of Premier Yanukovych's presidential campaign, distanced himself from the prime minister. "I am not staying on as the head of the Yanukovych campaign," Tihipko said. "We fulfilled our function when the voting took place [on 21 November]." JM

MOLDOVAN OPPOSITION PARTIES RALLY AGAINST COMMUNISTS. The Democratic Moldova bloc (an alliance of centrist opposition parties set up last year and comprising the Our Moldova bloc, the Democratic Party, and several other extraparliamentary formations) on 29 November held a rally in Chisinau against the ruling Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM), Infotag and Flux reported. Some 2,000-5,000 protesters shouted anticommunist slogans and listened to speeches by the bloc's leaders. Former Prime Minister Dumitru Braghis said the parliamentary elections slated for 2005 will decide whether "Moldova returns to democracy or becomes an isolated island governed by dictatorship and despotism," according to Infotag. Braghis also warned that Moldova might repeat the recent Ukrainian electoral experience "because the communists are agonizing in their incompetence and in fear of losing the elections to the Democratic Moldova bloc." Chisinau Mayor Serafim Urechean told the rally that the recent arrest of four Chisinau mayoralty employees on alleged corruption charges is aimed at intimidating the PCM's opponents. MS

WILL UKRAINE SPLIT IN WAKE OF DIVISIVE BALLOT?

As hundreds of thousands of people were demonstrating in Kyiv and many other Ukrainian cities for the seventh consecutive day against what they believe was massive electoral fraud that denied victory in the 21 November presidential runoff to opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's supporters counterattacked on 28 November by threatening to seek autonomy for Ukraine's eastern and southern regions if Yanukovych was not installed as president.

Ukraine's east-west economic, cultural, religious, ethnic, and linguistic division -- which was reflected in voter preferences in both the 31 October and 21 November rounds of the presidential election -- has become a major topic on the country's already-overheated political agenda.

The handling of this issue by both the authorities and the opposition will be of utmost importance to the country's political and social stability.

On 28 November, some 4,000 local councilors from 15 eastern and southern Ukrainian regions gathered in Severodonetsk in Donetsk Oblast to express their support for Yanukovych as the legally elected president and to condemn the pro-Yushchenko opposition for leading Ukraine toward a "territorial split and catastrophe." "If the [current] coup d'etat is being developed further and an illegitimate president comes to power, participants in the congress reserve themselves the right to 'adequate actions and self-defense,'" the congress said in a statement. The participants warned that they will hold a "referendum on a possible change of Ukraine's administrative-territorial system" on 12 December if the situation in Ukraine develops under "the worst-case scenario."

There was an apparent Russian hand behind this congress. The Severodonetsk gathering was attended by one of Russia's most influential politicians: Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov. It is unclear whether Luzhkov's visit to Severodonetsk was coordinated with the Kremlin, but his behavior and statements there were fully consistent with Yanukovych's Russian-inspired electoral platform, which calls on Ukrainians to abandon their aspirations to join NATO and the EU and promises to make Russian the second official language and introduce dual Ukrainian-Russian citizenship. Luzhkov brought with him the unambiguous message that Russia continues to stand beside Yanukovych in the current crisis in Ukraine. "On one hand, we see the Sabbath of witches who have been fattened up with oranges and who pretend that they represent the whole of the nation," Luzhkov told the congress in an apparent reference to the pro-Yushchenko "orange revolution" in Ukraine. "On the other, we see the peaceful power of constructive forces that has gathered in this hall."

Also on 28 November, the Donetsk Oblast Council voted 155-1 to set a regional referendum for 5 December on introducing constitutional amendments that would ostensibly change Ukraine into a federal state and give Donetsk Oblast the status of a republic within that new federation. The Donetsk councilors justified their proposal by citing the postelection standoff, which, they said, "is threatening public security, the constitutional system [as well as] the life and heath of citizens." The Donetsk Oblast Council also affirmed that Yanukovych is the legally elected president and expressed its lack of confidence in the Verkhovna Rada, the national legislature that on 27 November passed a resolution declaring the presidential runoff flawed.

Yanukovych, who attended the congress in Severodonetsk, appeared to distance himself from the radical atmosphere during the gathering. "I appeal to you to avoid any radical measures," he told the gathering. "When the first drop of blood is spilled, we will not be able to stop it. And if this happens, it will be on the conscience of those people who provoked this situation." Yanukovych left the Severodonetsk meeting before the resolution on a possible referendum on regional autonomy was adopted. But his maneuvers did not convincingly erase the impression that he was personally embroiled in a scheme that threatened to undermine the territorial integrity of Ukraine as a "unified state," as proclaimed by the country's constitution.

Even if the threat of "separatist" plebiscites in eastern regions is nothing more than the Yanukovych camp's political bluff intended to counterbalance the pro-Yushchenko demonstrations in Kyiv and the west of the country, this move could boomerang on the prime minister and deprive him of any realistic chance of not only becoming president but also of pursuing any other political career in Kyiv. After all, a politician aspiring to become a nationwide leader should presumably avoid association with actions that threaten to splinter the country territorially for the sole purpose of satisfying his or her political ambitions.

The pro-Yushchenko camp counterattacked immediately. The Committee of National Salvation (KNP), a body set up by Yushchenko's political backers and allies to coordinate the ongoing protest actions in Ukraine, delivered an ultimatum to incumbent President Leonid Kuchma on 28 November. The committee demanded that Kuchma take the following steps: sack Prime Minister Yanukovych for his alleged contributions to the falsification of the 21 November presidential ballot and participation in "separatist actions"; submit new candidates for Central Election Commission membership to the Verkhovna Rada; fire the governors of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv oblasts for initiating a "split of Ukraine"; and order the Prosecutor-General's Office to launch an immediate probe against "secessionists" in Ukraine. The Committee of National Salvation threatened to begin blocking Kuchma's travels in Ukraine if he failed to comply with the ultimatum within 24 hours.

Kuchma on 29 November condemned the calls for autonomy from Ukraine's eastern regions. But he also stressed that Ukraine's threatened split was initiated in the western part of the country, where local councilors have pledged allegiance to "people's president" Yushchenko and effectively refused to obey instructions and orders from the central government.

Thus, ironically, the standoff in Ukraine is strengthening the position of President Kuchma as the "father of the nation" and an "arbitrator" who is ostensibly uninvolved on either side of the postelection confrontation. This situation has already revived speculation that Kuchma might be considering another run for the post of president if the Supreme Court strikes down the results of the 2004 presidential election, presumably leading to a repeat ballot. Under such a scenario, Yushchenko and Yanukovych, as the candidates already "used up" in the previous campaign, would have little chance against Kuchma, posing as he would as the guarantor of stability for a society polarized by the Yushchenko-Yanukovych rivalry.

However, regardless of who eventually becomes Ukraine's president, it is already evident that a radical readjustment of the way the country has been governed is in order. The adventurous policy of playing up the country's east against its west needs to be abandoned once and for all if Ukraine is to survive as a single state. And there must be a daring political compromise on the formation of a coalition government capable of assuring people in both eastern and western Ukraine that their interests are truly represented in Kyiv.

These appear to be the two greatest challenges facing Ukraine's political class once the current turmoil subsides and people begin to think about how to proceed with their everyday lives.

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GERMANY SAYS PUTIN AGREES TO NEW UKRAINIAN ELECTIONS... The German government says Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to accept new elections in Ukraine and to respect the results, international news agencies reported on 30 November. Putin made the concession in a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, dpa and Reuters reported. "The chancellor and the Russian president were in agreement that the results of a new election, based on Ukrainian law and the will of the Ukraine people, would be strictly respected," Bela Anda, the chief spokesman for the German government, said. Putin has openly supported pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovych and has congratulated him on winning the disputed election. BW

...AS DUMA SPEAKER ASSAILS UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION, WARNS OF BLOODSHED... State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov said on 30 November that Ukraine could be headed for a violent breakup and bloodshed over its deadlocked presidential election, Russian and international news agencies reported on the same day. "The situation there is heading towards a split or towards bloodshed," Gryzlov said. "I see no other way the situation could develop," he added. Gryzlov briefly participated in attempts to mediate between pro-Moscow Prime Minister Yanukovych and West-leaning opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko last week. He accused Yushchenko of fomenting unrest. "Yushchenko was expected to urge the people to clear the streets, but the opposition did not do that," Gryzlov said. "On the contrary, it's distorting the essence of negotiations." Gryzlov added that the head of the city council of Donetsk, the largest city in heavily industrialized and predominantly Russian eastern Ukraine, will address the Duma on 1 December. "It'll be of interest for us to hear a representative of the supporters of Prime Minister Yanukovych, who was declared winner of the election," Gryzlov said. BW

...AND FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSES CRISIS WITH U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE. Sergei Lavrov expressed his concern over the escalating crisis in Ukraine in a telephone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell on 29 November, ITAR-TASS reported on the same day. "It is necessary to settle the conflict by legitimate means in compliance with Ukraine's Constitution and legislation," ITAR-TASS quoted Lavrov as saying. "It is very important [that] all political forces in Ukraine...show restraint and bear responsibility for the situation in the country," Lavrov, who was in Laos on an official visit, added. Sharp differences over the Ukrainian election have caused a rift between Russia and the West, as the Kremlin has accused the United States and Europe of meddling in Ukraine's internal affairs (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 November 2004). BW

FUEL UNION CHIEF WARNS OF DISRUPTION IN ENERGY SUPPLIES... Political instability in Ukraine could cause disruptions in energy supplies to Europe, Gennadii Shmal, the president of the Union of Oil and Gas Industrialists of Russia, said on 29 November, ITAR-TASS reported the same day. "The situation is hazardous not only for the creation of a Russo-Ukrainian gas transport consortium but also for other projects, first of all, in the gas area," Shmal said. In a veiled threat, he suggested that Germany, France, and other European countries receiving Russian gas by transit via Ukraine might reconsider their support for opposition leader Yushchenko and side with Moscow. "In the event that the export of Russian fuels to these countries stops, they will have problems with heating, and the expression 'cold war�' will no longer be allegorical to them," Shmal said. BW

...AS ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OFFICIAL SAYS RUSSO-UKRAINIAN PROJECTS COULD LOSE FUNDING. As many as 200 joint Russo-Ukrainian academic projects could potentially be left without state financing in the event of unfavorable developments in Ukraine, Sergei Markianov, the head of the department for external relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said on 29 November, ITAR-TASS reported the same day. "The events in Ukraine have not yet affected the Russo-Ukrainian...ties in science and technology," Markianov said. He also did not specify exactly how or why this might happen, but noted that Boris Paton, the president of Ukraine's Academy of Sciences, is scheduled to visit Russia on 14 December to discuss future projects. BW

UZBEK FOREIGN MINISTER MEETS WITH CIS SECRETARY. Sadyk Safaev met with Vladimir Rushailo, chairman of the CIS Executive Committee, in Tashkent on 29 November, Uzbek television reported. The report noted that the two men discussed events in the CIS "and in particular, the situation in Ukraine." Other topics included the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking, UzA reported. Safaev and Rushailo also exchanged ideas on the formation of the CIS Executive Committee's planned observer mission to monitor Uzbek parliamentary elections on 26 December. DK

WILL UKRAINE SPLIT IN WAKE OF DIVISIVE BALLOT?

The handling of this issue by both the authorities and the opposition will be of utmost importance to the country's political and social stability.

These appear to be the two greatest challenges facing Ukraine's political class once the current turmoil subsides and people begin to think about how to proceed with their everyday lives.