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UKRAINIAN ELECTION -- Get the latest news on the Ukrainian presidential crisis at
http://www.rferl.org/specials/ukraine/ xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Headlines, Part II

BELARUS TO TOUGHEN GOVERNMENT CONTROL IN WAKE OF UKRAINIAN STANDOFF. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka on 1 December told the newly appointed head of the presidential administration, Viktar Sheyman, to focus his efforts on increasing stability in the country and ensuring better control of the government system at all levels, Belapan and RFE/RL's Belarus Service reported. Sheyman pledged to work toward strengthening the power system in the country. "The external situation, primarily events in Ukraine, shows that modern political techniques [and] weak control within a country may lead to serious consequences," he said. JM

UKRAINE'S YUSHCHENKO, YANUKOVYCH MOVE TOWARD POLITICAL COMPROMISE. Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko and his presidential rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, held roundtable talks in Kyiv on 1 December to resolve the ongoing standoff over the disputed presidential vote, Ukrainian media reported. The talks were attended by President Leonid Kuchma and foreign mediators: EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, OSCE Secretary-General Jan Kubis, Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski, Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus, and Russian State Duma Chairman Boris Gryzlov. The sides adopted a document that has been described by Yushchenko and Kuchma as a compromise. According to the document, the conflicting sides agreed to work toward eliminating the use of force in resolving the election crisis; unblock government offices that are being surrounded by pro-Yushchenko protesters; prepare proposals for concluding the presidential election following a ruling of the Supreme Court; prepare a new presidential election law jointly with a constitutional reform shifting the balance of power from the president to the parliament and the prime minister; and work toward preventing an economic crisis in Ukraine. JM

YUSHCHENKO SAYS HE WILL AGREE ONLY TO NEW RUNOFF... Following the roundtable talks with Premier Yanukovych on 1 December, Yushchenko told tens of thousands of his supporters on Independence Square in Kyiv that he will agree only to a rerun of the 21 November presidential runoff, not a completely new presidential election, as postulated by President Kuchma (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2004), Ukrainian media reported. "If the idea of a completely new election is raised again, there is absolutely no point in taking part in these talks [with Yanukovych]," Yushchenko said. According to Yushchenko, the Supreme Court's ruling on the 21 November runoff will be crucial for further developments in Ukraine. "If [the Supreme Court decision] is made in the context of the political decisions made by the Verkhovna Rada [no-confidence vote in Yanukovych's cabinet on 1 December], I can say firmly, dear friends, that we are [just] one step away from resolving the political crisis in Ukraine," Yushchenko said on Independence Square and called on the crowd to stay there until such a ruling is passed. JM

...AS HIS BACKERS VOW TO UNBLOCK UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICES ONLY AFTER YANUKOVYCH'S DEPARTURE. Yushchenko's adherents will unblock the building of the Cabinet of Ministers only after Premier Yanukovych and his ministers leave their posts, following the no-confidence vote in the cabinet by the Verkhovna Rada on 1 December, the "Ukrayinska pravda" website reported on 2 December, quoting lawmaker Petro Poroshenko, Yushchenko's political ally. Poroshenko was commenting on an accord between Yushchenko and Yanukovych providing for the removal of the ongoing blockade of the government offices. "There is no government, it was dismissed, and this [dismissal] does not require any additional steps on the part of the president or the premier," Poroshenko said. Meanwhile, Yanukovych said on 1 December that the parliamentary no-confidence vote in his cabinet was illegal. "I will never recognize a decision taken under pressure," Ukrainian media quoted him as saying. "They [parliament] approved the decision in political terms. But it is against the law, it is against the constitution." JM

YANUKOVYCH CLAIMS VOTE WAS RIGGED IN WESTERN UKRAINE. As the Ukrainian Supreme Court was viewing Yushchenko's complaints of massive vote fraud in Ukraine's eastern oblasts for the third consecutive day, Yanukovych filed a complaint on 1 December claiming that results of the 21 November presidential runoff were falsified in a number of constituencies in western Ukraine, Interfax reported. According to Yanukovych, the alleged falsification took place in many polling stations where Yushchenko beat Yanukovych overwhelmingly or by a wide margin -- notably in the Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Chernivtsi regions as well as in the capital. Following last week's announcement of the Central Election Commission awarding victory to him, Yanukovych claimed that the 21 November runoff was fair and honest. JM

PRO-YANUKOVYCH REGION GOES FOR REFERENDUM ON AUTONOMOUS STATUS. The Donetsk Oblast Council on 1 December adopted a resolution to hold a regional referendum on 9 January to seek constitutional amendments that could introduce a federal system in Ukraine and give their region a status of republic in a new federation, Interfax reported. The resolution confirms the council's vote of 28 November to seek such a status for the region, which overwhelmingly voted for Yanukovych in the 31 October and 21 November presidential election rounds (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 November 2004). Donetsk Oblast Council Chairman Borys Kolesnykov told journalists that after staging the "consultative" referendum on 9 January, the region will begin collecting signatures for organizing a national referendum on Ukraine's federalization. Meanwhile, Donetsk City Council Secretary Mykola Levchenko urged the Russian State Duma at its extraordinary session on 1 December "to toughen its positions on Ukraine" in the ongoing Ukrainain crisis. "America and Western Europe are sticking their noses into Ukraine, while Russia is afraid even to touch it with its hand," ITAR-TASS quoted Levchenko as saying at a news conference after the session. JM

U.S., EU CALL ON RUSSIA TO SIGN MOLDOVA PACT, WITHDRAW TROOPS. United States and European Union representatives in the Permanent Council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna on 30 November called on Russia to sign the Moldovan-proposed Declaration on Stability and Security for the Republic of Moldova (DSSM), Flux reported the next day. Russia opposes that document. The U.S. and EU representatives also called on Russia to withdraw its troops and arsenal from Transdniester and called the closing of Moldovan schools teaching with Latin script by the separatist authorities "provocations and aggressive steps aimed at torpedoing the negotiation process." The U.S. and the EU representatives reiterated positions according to which the Ukrainian-Moldovan border must be monitored on its Transdniester section. They called on Ukraine to agree to having international observers placed on Ukrainian territory for this purpose. MS

UKRAINIAN ELECTION -- Get the latest news on the Ukrainian presidential crisis at
http://www.rferl.org/specials/ukraine/ xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Headlines, Part I

PUTIN AND EU CHIEF DISCUSS UKRAINE CRISIS... President Vladimir Putin and European Union leader Jan Peter Balkenende spoke by telephone on 1 December to discuss Ukraine's political crisis, international news agencies reported. Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency, emphasized the importance of all parties committing themselves to negotiations. "The EU will back any outcome that would receive the support of all parties concerned in Ukraine," Balkenende said. The Dutch government said in a statement that "both leaders stressed the importance of finding a solution within the legal framework of the country and by way of dialogue with all parties concerned." Moscow's relations with the EU have been strained by Ukraine's deadlocked presidential election, in which Russia openly supported Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and the EU and United States backed opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 November 2004). BW

...AS EASTERN UKRAINIAN LEADER ASKS MOSCOW TO GET TOUGH WITH WEST. Mykola Levchenko, chairman of the Donetsk City Council in eastern Ukraine, on 1 December urged Russian lawmakers to get tough with the West for interfering in his country's internal affairs, ITAR-TASS reported. "America and Western Europe are poking their snout into Ukraine, and Russia is afraid even to touch it with its hand," Levchenko told reporters after addressing a special session of the State Duma's leadership. "Political hooliganism is happening in Kiev today," he said. Levchenko's Donetsk region, heavily Russian speaking and pro-Moscow, has threatened to hold a referendum on autonomy if Yushchenko becomes Ukraine's president (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2004). Levchenko denied, however, that such a move would split Ukraine. "It's not about division or separatism, it's about a federation," he said. BW

DUMA SPEAKER PRAISES INTERIM ACCORD IN UKRAINE... State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov on 1 December praised a broad blueprint for political reform as an important step toward resolving Ukraine's ongoing crisis, ITAR-TASS reported. In an effort to break the impasse in Ukraine, a group of international mediators helped draft a broad plan to change the country's presidential election law, draft a new law on a political reform, and form a new cabinet (see also Ukraine items, "RFE/RL Newsline Part 2"). "I think this is a step toward a settlement," Gryzlov said. Gryzlov was among a group of international officials holding roundtable talks in Kyiv to help resolve the political standoff. The group also includes the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, and Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 2004). BW

...AND CONSIDERS MEASURE ASSAILING EUROPE. A pro-Kremlin faction in the Duma, meanwhile, has proposed a draft resolution protesting what it calls Europe's interference in Ukrainian affairs, ITAR-TASS reported on 2 December. The motion, sponsored by Nikolai Pavlov of the Motherland faction, denounced "European parliamentarians' actions as interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state -- Ukraine." Duma Speaker Gryzlov, meanwhile, lashed out again at Yushchenko's allies. "I think the country is tired of the opposition's forcible pressure," Gryzlov said on 1 December, ITAR-TASS reported. BW

UKRAINIAN ELECTION -- Get the latest news on the Ukrainian presidential crisis at
http://www.rferl.org/specials/ukraine/ xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Headlines, Part II

END NOTE: AVOIDING A NEW EAST-WEST RIFT OVER UKRAINE xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT VOTES TO WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM IRAQ... The Verkhovna Rada on 3 December passed a resolution authorizing the pullout of the Ukrainian military contingent from Iraq, Ukrainian media reported. The resolution was backed by 257 deputies. To become law, it must be signed by President Leonid Kuchma. The withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Iraq is one of opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko's election promises. It is noteworthy that just 24 out of 100 deputies of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine parliamentary caucus voted for the resolution, which was supported primarily by deputies from the Communist Party, the Socialist Party, the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, and pro-Kuchma groups. JM

...AND MOVES TO FREEZE PRICES FOR HOUSEHOLD COMMODITIES. The Verkhovna Rada on 3 December passed a resolution intended to prevent a financial crisis and a "further reduction of cash settlements between enterprises and the state budget" in Ukraine, UNIAN reported. The resolution was backed by 385 deputies. It obliges the government to freeze prices for household appliances at the level of those standing on 30 November. JM

UKRAINIAN SOCIALISTS PROPOSE THEIR LEADER AS HEAD OF INTERIM CABINET. Socialist Party lawmaker Yuriy Lutsenko proposed at a session of the Verkhovna Rada on 3 December that a new parliamentary coalition be formed to run an interim government of "national salvation" in order to address the ongoing political crisis in Ukraine, Ukrainian media reported. According to Lutsenko, such a government could function for some two months and be headed by Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz. The Verkhovna Rada passed a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Yanukovych's cabinet on 1 December but Yanukovych refused to quit (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 December 2004). JM

OPPOSITION LEADER TO TAKE 'ADEQUATE MEASURES' IF UKRAINIAN RUNOFF NOT REPEATED. Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko reiterated his stance to a crowd of backers on Independence Square in Kyiv on 2 December that he is interested in a rerun of the 21 November presidential runoff, not the whole presidential election, Ukrainian media reported. "Remember, speaking about a [totally] new election will lead to a catastrophe in Ukraine," he said. Yushchenko warned that if, following a verdict of the Supreme Court on the 21 November runoff, the authorities fail to agree to a rerun of the second round, the opposition will take "adequate measures." JM

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT WANTS NEW PRESIDENTIAL RUNOFF IN UKRAINE. The European Parliament on 2 December passed a resolution on the situation in Ukraine condemning the 21 November presidential runoff in Ukraine as apparently fraudulent and rejecting the Central Election Commission's decision that declared Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner, the European Parliament website (http://www.europarl.eu.int) reported. The European Parliament called on the Ukrainian authorities to annul the official results of the runoff and hold an honest rerun of the second round before the end of this year with the participation of international observers. The resolution also called on Ukrainian protesters to allow the normal functioning of Ukraine's state organs and to refrain from barricading the main buildings of these organs. JM

ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT TO INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF ELECTORAL FRAUD. Foreign Minister and aspiring premier Geoana said on 2 December that the government will investigate allegations by opposition PNL-Democratic Party presidential candidate Traian Basescu and civil society organizations that the 28 November ballot was fraudulent, AP reported. Nastase said in Oradea the same day that the difference between the elections in Romania and Ukraine is that in the latter the ballot was indeed fraudulent, while in Romania "there have been [counting] errors that did not affect the elections' result." European Commission enlargement spokeswoman Krisztina Nagy said the same day in Brussels that the elections "seem to have been conducted in an orderly manner" and the commission does not "see any direct link with the conduct of accession negotiations" with Bucharest, Reuters reported. MS

TRANSDNIESTRIAN SEPARATIST LEADER OPPOSES CHANGE IN NEGOTIATIONS FRAMEWORK. Separatist leader Igor Smirnov said on 2 December that Transdniester will oppose any attempt to change the current five-sided negotiations format, ITAR-TASS reported. Smirnov was commenting on the Moldova-proposed Declaration on Stability and Security for the Republic of Moldova (DSSM), which would grant observer status to the EU and the United States in the negotiations. The proposal is to be discussed at the 6-7 December meeting in Sofia of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Also on 2 December, a statement released by the Transdniestrian "Foreign Ministry" said the current format of the negotiations "is inviolable, and may be changed only with the consent of all participants," Infotag reported. Aside from Moldova and Transdniester, the current format includes the OSCE, Russia, and Ukraine as mediators. MS

AVOIDING A NEW EAST-WEST RIFT OVER UKRAINE

For hundreds of thousands of people displaying orange ribbons and banners who have been protesting in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities against the officially announced results of the presidential runoff on 21 November, it is of little importance that opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko is "pro-Western" or that his rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, is "pro-Russian." Most pro-Yushchenko demonstrators support him primarily because he has promised to oust "criminal clans" from power in Kyiv and improve the livelihood of ordinary Ukrainians, not because of his foreign-policy platform.

However, both Ukraine's "criminal clans" and Yushchenko's presidential rival come from the eastern part of the country, which traditionally has deep economic, historical, cultural, linguistic, and ethnic ties with Russia. Russia's financial and propagandistic support for Yanukovych in the presidential campaign thus unavoidably transformed the Ukrainian vote -- which was essentially a choice between the political continuity represented by the prime minister and the political change embodied by Yushchenko -- into a geopolitical choice between West and East.

The West, too, has considerably even if indirectly contributed to making the Ukrainian ballot a confrontation of external forces in addition to that of domestic ones. Many Western politicians and analysts have made no secret of the fact that they prefer "pro-Western" Yushchenko to "pro-Russian" Yanukovych, as if seeking to invite a Russian response. So it is no wonder that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally traveled to Ukraine before each of the election's two rounds to assure Ukrainian voters that Moscow's sympathies were unambiguously with Yanukovych. And Putin has already twice congratulated Yanukovych on winning the election. Putin's first congratulatory message came one day after the 21 November polling, when Ukraine's Central Election Commission was still tallying the vote. This fact alone is a good indicator of the Kremlin's eagerness to install Yanukovych as president in Kyiv.

A Western reaction to the Ukrainian presidential runoff came on 25 November. U.S. Secretary of State Collin Powell rejected the officially announced results, according to which Yanukovych beat Yushchenko by nearly 3 percent of the vote, and warned Ukrainian authorities of "consequences" for U.S.-Ukrainian relations if they do not investigate "the numerous and credible reports of fraud and abuse." The Netherlands, which holds the rotating EU Presidency, said the same day that the official results do not reflect the will of the Ukrainian people and called on Ukrainian authorities "to redress election irregularities" reported by foreign observers. Thus Washington and Brussels have jointly confronted Moscow along what seems to be a new Cold War fault line opened in Ukraine.

Can the threat of a new Cold War be averted? It can, provided that the Kremlin does not encourage incumbent Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma to suppress the ongoing "orange revolution" by force. The decision by Ukraine's Supreme Court to suspend the certification of the official election results until it examines Yushchenko's complaints of massive electoral fraud has left room for political dialogue and compromise in Ukraine. But if the Ukrainian authorities use forceful means to instate Yanukovych, Ukraine will likely be transformed into a hotbed of new confrontation between Russia and the West. And this will be the worst possible scenario for Ukraine. Because Ukraine cannot choose Russia versus the West (or the West versus Russia, for that matter). In order to survive as a single state, Ukraine needs to choose Russia and the West simultaneously, however schizophrenic that might sound.

Theoretically, the Supreme Court may reject Yushchenko's complaints or support them. The latter might entail invalidation of the vote in some electoral constituencies and a subsequent vote recount. According to the opposition, a vote recount could award the election victory to Yushchenko. Yushchenko alleges that electoral authorities illegally added more than 3 million votes to Yanukovych's support, primarily in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the east and Mykolayiv Oblast in the south. The vote gap between Yanukovych and Yushchenko, as announced by the Central Election Commission, amounts to some 870,000 votes. There is also a possibility that, following a political deal between the Yushchenko and Yanukovych camps, the 21 November vote might be invalidated and a new election called. (The current presidential election law does not provide for such a possibility.)

Kuchma has ruled out the possibility of authorities being the first to use force in the current crisis. Such a possibility is becoming increasingly problematic as police and security-service officers join the protests and pledge allegiance to the "people's president," Yushchenko. However, a strong-arm scenario for resolving the Ukrainian postelection impasse cannot be excluded completely. Kuchma still seems to be in full control of riot-police units and special-task troops that are now guarding the presidential administration and government offices in Kyiv.

As for Russia's role in the Ukrainian standoff, it should be noted that President Putin has misjudged the situation on two important points. First, he obviously did not expect that Ukrainians would take to the streets to back Yushchenko on such a massive scale. While commenting on Ukraine at a Russia-EU summit in The Hague on 25 November, Putin seemed to back down on his previous assurance that the election was indisputably won by Yanukovych. Putin noted that the election is Ukraine's internal affair and added that any election disputes should be resolved by in a legal way. "And we know what the legal way is -- all claims should be sent to the court," he said.

Second, Putin appears to have overrated the threat to Russian interests posed by Yushchenko's potential presidency. This is a curious miscalculation, given Yushchenko's record in the post of Ukrainian prime minister in 1999-2001. In that period, Yushchenko halted the decline in Russian-Ukrainian trade and put an end to the main irritant in bilateral relations -- the theft of Russian gas pumped to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines. Yushchenko also opened the Ukrainian market for major Russian companies and made the privatization process in Ukraine a highly transparent business. For Yushchenko, Russia remains Ukraine's strategic partner. In other words, Yushchenko is far from a Ukrainian replica of Mikhail Saakashvili, who came to power in Georgia thanks to a "Rose Revolution" one year ago. Saakashvili nearly provoked armed clashes with Russian troops while trying to subjugate Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia to central rule. Yushchenko is a pragmatist who would be unlikely to resort to such adventurous policies in relations with Russia.

So why has Putin put his stake on Yanukovych after all? The most plausible answer is that the Kremlin saw in Yanukovych a perfect candidate for running a client regime in Ukraine, which would be isolated from the West and dependent primarily on Mother Russia, as the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus. According to this line of reasoning, Putin's Russia has eventually recovered from the trauma inflicted by the breakup of the Soviet Union and is now seeking to restore some of its lost domain under the name of Single Economic Space. Thus, Yanukovych's election platform calling to abandon Ukraine's aspirations to seek NATO and EU membership as well as promising to make Russian the second official language and introduce dual Ukrainian-Russian citizenship in Ukraine is fully consistent with such "neo-imperial" sentiments in Russia.

It is another matter whether Yanukovych, if declared president, can deliver on his promises. His proposals to give official status to Russian and introduce dual citizenship would require a change in the constitution, which is a difficult task under the best of circumstances, let alone after an inauguration following such a bitter postelection standoff. As for Yanukovych's pledge to create favorable conditions for Russian businesses in Ukraine after his election, that should not be taken for granted, either. The "Donetsk clan" (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report" 26 November and 10 December 2002), of which Yanukovych is a faithful representative and disciple, has its own peculiar way of doing business. Earlier this year Yanukovych's cabinet conducted the notorious privatization of Kryvorizhstal, the country's largest metallurgical plant, in which the company was sold to Yanukovych's political and economic partner, Rinat Akhmetov from Donetsk, and Viktor Pinchuk, President Kuchma's son-in-law, for a sum that was reportedly less than half the figures offered by Russian and Western bidders.

However, irrespective of who wins power in Ukraine, it is highly advisable that the West not give up its efforts to encourage Ukraine's aspirations for integration into Europe. An anticipated West-leaning government headed by Yushchenko would surely expect some financial and other support from the West in return for its pro-Western policies. And Yushchenko should unreservedly obtain such assistance.

The same is equally, if not more, applicable to Yanukovych's presidency. The pro-Western electorate in Ukraine should in no way be allowed to feel abandoned or betrayed by Europe. As demonstrated in the case of Belarus, isolating an anti-Western regime does not guarantee that the country will become more democratic.

UKRAINIAN ELECTION -- Get the latest news on the Ukrainian presidential crisis at
http://www.rferl.org/specials/ukraine/ xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Headlines, Part I

END NOTE: AVOIDING A NEW EAST-WEST RIFT OVER UKRAINE xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT MAKES UNSCHEDULED TRIP TO MOSCOW TO DISCUSS CRISIS... President Vladimir Putin met for two hours on 2 December with Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who made an unscheduled trip to Moscow to discuss Ukraine's political crisis (see Ukraine items, "RFE/RL Newsline Part 2"), Russian media reported. Addressing journalists following the talks at Moscow's Vnukovo airport, Putin expressed his disagreement with Ukrainian opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko's demand that his disputed 21 November presidential runoff against government-backed and pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych be repeated. Putin voiced his support for holding a new election entirely, saying, "a re-vote could be conducted a third, a fourth, a 25th time, until one side gets the results it needs," RTR reported. Kuchma echoed Putin's sentiments, saying, "I don't know of a single country that has such a legal norm as a re-vote," RTR reported. Putin praised Kuchma for keeping the situation in Ukraine under control, and expressed Russia's concerns over "the possibility of Ukraine splitting up." He also said that Russia is prepared to help resolve the crisis, and that "Russia will always be together with Ukraine." VY

...AND PROMPTS SPECULATION AS TO HIS TRUE INTENTIONS. Commenting on Kuchma's visit to Moscow, Duma Deputy Speaker Sergei Baburin (Motherland) said on 2 December that he believes the Ukrainian president made the trip to persuade Putin to retreat from his open support for Yanukovych, TV-Tsentr on 2 December. Baburin said that while, as a Russian, he supports Yanukovych, as a politician he admires Yushchenko as "a revolutionary." The same evening in Kyiv, Yushchenko addressed his supporters with an unusual 20-minute speech in Russian, in which he called Russia Ukraine's most import neighbor and encouraged Ukrainians to acquire a good understanding of the Russian language. Meanwhile, gazeta.ru speculated on 2 December that during their meeting Putin probably advised Kuchma how to handle international pressure and the popular support that Yushchenko enjoys. The newspaper went on say that Putin and Kuchma's discussion likely centered on finding a common position on a proposal by an international group of mediators that Ukraine prepare a new presidential election law jointly with a constitutional reform that would shift the balance of power from the president to the parliament and the prime minister (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 December 2004). VY

DUMA ASSAILS EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT OVER UKRAINE... The Russian State Duma passed a resolution on 3 December accusing members of the European Parliament, the European Union, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) of destabilizing Ukraine, ITAR-TASS reported. The resolution, which passed by a vote of 415-0 with eight abstentions, accused the Europeans of "destructive foreign interference in the development of the situation in Ukraine." The action of the Europeans "practically pushes the radically minded part of the Ukrainian population toward dangerous actions," which threatens to result in "mass disturbances, chaos, and a split of the country." The resolution harshly criticized the Ukrainian opposition supporting presidential hopeful Yushchenko for using the tactics of "street democracy." The resolution added that the Duma is sincerely interested in seeing that the situation in Ukraine is resolved in "a democratic and constitutional way," and stressed the lawmakers' "firm commitment to continuing efforts toward the strengthening of traditional friendship and fraternal relations between the peoples of Russia and Ukraine." BW

...AS KUCHMA SAYS RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT IS ESSENTIAL. During his brief visit to Moscow on 2 December (see above), Ukrainian President Kuchma said that active Russian involvement is essential in resolving Ukraine's political crisis, ITAR-TASS reported the next day. "Without Russia's efforts it is impossible to find ways to overcome the political crisis," he said. "Otherwise Ukraine may lose its political identity." Kuchma also thanked State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov for taking part in roundtable negotiations on Ukraine's crisis as part of a group of international mediators. Kuchma added that if the crisis is not resolved, "we can predict economic consequences." BW

IS THE FEDERALIZATION OF UKRAINE IN THE CARDS? National Strategy Institute Director Stanislav Belkovskii, who early this year predicted a political crisis in Ukraine (see "The Kremlin's Battle For Ukraine"
[http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/05/a3cc5af6-fde5-4032-af08 -a8d6af4b6381.html]), wrote in "Argumenty i fakty," No. 48, that the crisis will be resolved via the formation of a coalition government including both Yushchenko and Yanukovych supporters as well as Socialists and Communists. He also wrote that reforms that will be implemented to end the crisis will include not only the redistribution of the balance of power (see above), but also the federalization of Ukraine. Belkovskii added that Russia should drop its unilateral support for Yanukovych and find other political allies in Ukraine. Such a position, he wrote, will reflect "the eclectic nature of Ukrainian state." VY

ELECTORAL COMMISSION HEAD SAYS UKRAINE-TYPE CRISIS IN RUSSIA IS IMPOSSIBLE. Central Elections Commission Chairman Aleksandr Veshnyakov said in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii on 3 December that the political crisis that has developed in Ukraine could not possibly occur in Russia, Interfax reported. "We have different approaches to elections in the legal medium, to organizing voting and summing up the results," Veshnyakov said. "Technologically, the Russian elections system is much more effective, more open, and better controlled by the public." He added that "Russia's open election system gives no grounds for doubting election returns," as is the case in Ukraine's parliamentary and presidential elections. BW

UZBEK LEADER BLAMES UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES FOR CRISIS... President Karimov told journalists in Tashkent on 2 December during a break in a session of parliament that the "shortsighted policy of Ukraine's leadership" has led to the current crisis there, RIA-Novosti reported. He criticized Russia as well, saying that "Russia's excessive demonstration of its interest in the election results has had a less than ideal effect on the situation," fergana.ru reported. But Karimov also appeared to draw a dismissive parallel between protests in Kyiv and Georgia's so-called Rose Revolution. "It's clearly visible how seriously stage-managed these events are," he said. "First people stand around for days near parliament, then power changes hands easily, as if by command. You can see this in Ukraine. The funds were supplied in advance, and the statements were planned in advance." DK

AVOIDING A NEW EAST-WEST RIFT OVER UKRAINE

For hundreds of thousands of people displaying orange ribbons and banners who have been protesting in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities against the officially announced results of the presidential runoff on 21 November, it is of little importance that opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko is "pro-Western" or that his rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, is "pro-Russian." Most pro-Yushchenko demonstrators support him primarily because he has promised to oust "criminal clans" from power in Kyiv and improve the livelihood of ordinary Ukrainians, not because of his foreign-policy platform.

However, both Ukraine's "criminal clans" and Yushchenko's presidential rival come from the eastern part of the country, which traditionally has deep economic, historical, cultural, linguistic, and ethnic ties with Russia. Russia's financial and propagandistic support for Yanukovych in the presidential campaign thus unavoidably transformed the Ukrainian vote -- which was essentially a choice between the political continuity represented by the prime minister and the political change embodied by Yushchenko -- into a geopolitical choice between West and East.

The West, too, has considerably even if indirectly contributed to making the Ukrainian ballot a confrontation of external forces in addition to that of domestic ones. Many Western politicians and analysts have made no secret of the fact that they prefer "pro-Western" Yushchenko to "pro-Russian" Yanukovych, as if seeking to invite a Russian response. So it is no wonder that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally traveled to Ukraine before each of the election's two rounds to assure Ukrainian voters that Moscow's sympathies were unambiguously with Yanukovych. And Putin has already twice congratulated Yanukovych on winning the election. Putin's first congratulatory message came one day after the 21 November polling, when Ukraine's Central Election Commission was still tallying the vote. This fact alone is a good indicator of the Kremlin's eagerness to install Yanukovych as president in Kyiv.

A Western reaction to the Ukrainian presidential runoff came on 25 November. U.S. Secretary of State Collin Powell rejected the officially announced results, according to which Yanukovych beat Yushchenko by nearly 3 percent of the vote, and warned Ukrainian authorities of "consequences" for U.S.-Ukrainian relations if they do not investigate "the numerous and credible reports of fraud and abuse." The Netherlands, which holds the rotating EU Presidency, said the same day that the official results do not reflect the will of the Ukrainian people and called on Ukrainian authorities "to redress election irregularities" reported by foreign observers. Thus Washington and Brussels have jointly confronted Moscow along what seems to be a new Cold War fault line opened in Ukraine.

Can the threat of a new Cold War be averted? It can, provided that the Kremlin does not encourage incumbent Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma to suppress the ongoing "orange revolution" by force. The decision by Ukraine's Supreme Court to suspend the certification of the official election results until it examines Yushchenko's complaints of massive electoral fraud has left room for political dialogue and compromise in Ukraine. But if the Ukrainian authorities use forceful means to instate Yanukovych, Ukraine will likely be transformed into a hotbed of new confrontation between Russia and the West. And this will be the worst possible scenario for Ukraine. Because Ukraine cannot choose Russia versus the West (or the West versus Russia, for that matter). In order to survive as a single state, Ukraine needs to choose Russia and the West simultaneously, however schizophrenic that might sound.

Theoretically, the Supreme Court may reject Yushchenko's complaints or support them. The latter might entail invalidation of the vote in some electoral constituencies and a subsequent vote recount. According to the opposition, a vote recount could award the election victory to Yushchenko. Yushchenko alleges that electoral authorities illegally added more than 3 million votes to Yanukovych's support, primarily in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the east and Mykolayiv Oblast in the south. The vote gap between Yanukovych and Yushchenko, as announced by the Central Election Commission, amounts to some 870,000 votes. There is also a possibility that, following a political deal between the Yushchenko and Yanukovych camps, the 21 November vote might be invalidated and a new election called. (The current presidential election law does not provide for such a possibility.)

Kuchma has ruled out the possibility of authorities being the first to use force in the current crisis. Such a possibility is becoming increasingly problematic as police and security-service officers join the protests and pledge allegiance to the "people's president," Yushchenko. However, a strong-arm scenario for resolving the Ukrainian postelection impasse cannot be excluded completely. Kuchma still seems to be in full control of riot-police units and special-task troops that are now guarding the presidential administration and government offices in Kyiv.

As for Russia's role in the Ukrainian standoff, it should be noted that President Putin has misjudged the situation on two important points. First, he obviously did not expect that Ukrainians would take to the streets to back Yushchenko on such a massive scale. While commenting on Ukraine at a Russia-EU summit in The Hague on 25 November, Putin seemed to back down on his previous assurance that the election was indisputably won by Yanukovych. Putin noted that the election is Ukraine's internal affair and added that any election disputes should be resolved by in a legal way. "And we know what the legal way is -- all claims should be sent to the court," he said.

Second, Putin appears to have overrated the threat to Russian interests posed by Yushchenko's potential presidency. This is a curious miscalculation, given Yushchenko's record in the post of Ukrainian prime minister in 1999-2001. In that period, Yushchenko halted the decline in Russian-Ukrainian trade and put an end to the main irritant in bilateral relations -- the theft of Russian gas pumped to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines. Yushchenko also opened the Ukrainian market for major Russian companies and made the privatization process in Ukraine a highly transparent business. For Yushchenko, Russia remains Ukraine's strategic partner. In other words, Yushchenko is far from a Ukrainian replica of Mikhail Saakashvili, who came to power in Georgia thanks to a "Rose Revolution" one year ago. Saakashvili nearly provoked armed clashes with Russian troops while trying to subjugate Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia to central rule. Yushchenko is a pragmatist who would be unlikely to resort to such adventurous policies in relations with Russia.

So why has Putin put his stake on Yanukovych after all? The most plausible answer is that the Kremlin saw in Yanukovych a perfect candidate for running a client regime in Ukraine, which would be isolated from the West and dependent primarily on Mother Russia, as the regime of Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus. According to this line of reasoning, Putin's Russia has eventually recovered from the trauma inflicted by the breakup of the Soviet Union and is now seeking to restore some of its lost domain under the name of Single Economic Space. Thus, Yanukovych's election platform calling to abandon Ukraine's aspirations to seek NATO and EU membership as well as promising to make Russian the second official language and introduce dual Ukrainian-Russian citizenship in Ukraine is fully consistent with such "neo-imperial" sentiments in Russia.

It is another matter whether Yanukovych, if declared president, can deliver on his promises. His proposals to give official status to Russian and introduce dual citizenship would require a change in the constitution, which is a difficult task under the best of circumstances, let alone after an inauguration following such a bitter postelection standoff. As for Yanukovych's pledge to create favorable conditions for Russian businesses in Ukraine after his election, that should not be taken for granted, either. The "Donetsk clan" (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus and Ukraine Report" 26 November and 10 December 2002), of which Yanukovych is a faithful representative and disciple, has its own peculiar way of doing business. Earlier this year Yanukovych's cabinet conducted the notorious privatization of Kryvorizhstal, the country's largest metallurgical plant, in which the company was sold to Yanukovych's political and economic partner, Rinat Akhmetov from Donetsk, and Viktor Pinchuk, President Kuchma's son-in-law, for a sum that was reportedly less than half the figures offered by Russian and Western bidders.

However, irrespective of who wins power in Ukraine, it is highly advisable that the West not give up its efforts to encourage Ukraine's aspirations for integration into Europe. An anticipated West-leaning government headed by Yushchenko would surely expect some financial and other support from the West in return for its pro-Western policies. And Yushchenko should unreservedly obtain such assistance.

The same is equally, if not more, applicable to Yanukovych's presidency. The pro-Western electorate in Ukraine should in no way be allowed to feel abandoned or betrayed by Europe. As demonstrated in the case of Belarus, isolating an anti-Western regime does not guarantee that the country will become more democratic.