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INFLUENTIAL ANALYST PREDICTS REVOLUTION LOOMS IN RUSSIA. National Strategy Institute Director Stanislav Belkovskii said at a press conference in Moscow on 27 April that the Kremlin fears the prospect of "an orange revolution" in Russia, and fails to understand that opposition is growing internally and is not driven from abroad, lenta.ru, utro.ru and other Russian media reported on 28 April. He argued that because the Kremlin's power is waning and all of its policies prove to be counterproductive, a "colored" revolution in Russia in the near future is very likely. Belkovskii added that such a revolution in Russia would not be bloodless like those in Ukraine and Georgia. Belkovskii said he sees his role as helping to prevent bloodshed and "to prepare a constructive power takeover," which he said is possible if Putin voluntarily leaves office. Belkovskii said he has left his position to work jointly with National Bolshevik Party (NBP) head Eduard Limonov to prepare for the revolution. VY
SENIOR FSB OFFICIAL SEEKS NEW INTERNET, PHONE CONTROLS... Federal Security Service (FSB) Information Center representative Dmitrii Frolov told members of the Federation Council on 28 April that the FSB considers it necessary to widen its controls over telecommunications and the Internet, RIA-Novosti reported. One of the goals would be to prevent the spread of extremist ideas on the Internet, he said. Frolov also noted that various groups use the Internet to mobilize political forces against authorities, citing the examples of Yugoslavia, Georgia, and Ukraine. Frolov called for the mandatory registration of mobile phones with Internet access, according to the news agency. Gazeta.ru commented that the "siloviki" have called for tighter regulation of the Russian segment of the World Wide Web before, but on the basis of preventing the spread of pornography or instructions on how to create bombs. The FSB now appears to be seeking to broaden those goals to include searching for the political opposition on the Internet. JAC
World Press Freedom Day, marked on 3 May, offers an opportunity to take stock of the challenges individual journalists and news organizations face in fulfilling their professional duties. Dramatically different stories have emerged in countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the wider geographic swath to the west and south that represented the communist world during the Cold War.
The overall picture for independent media in the 12 countries of the non-Baltic FSU is grim. Journalists face enormous obstacles in settings where authorities have denied an enabling environment for independent journalism and the free flow of information. Despite the considerable attention and resources devoted to the issue of press freedom, the overall trend in recent years in the FSU has been toward even tighter control by the authorities. Ten of the 12 non-Baltic FSU countries are ranked "Not Free" in the 2005 edition of Freedom House's "Freedom of the Press" survey.
On the most repressive end of the continuum is Turkmenistan, where the government controls all radio and television broadcasts and the print media. An Orwellian-like domination of the information sector leaves a gaping information vacuum that is filled only by the bizarre musings of President Saparmurat Niyazov.
The Turkmen authorities seem determined to demolish any remaining vestiges of contact with the outside world from a country that is already severely isolated. A recently issued Niyazov decree forbids foreign postal services from delivering to Turkmenistan. This measure means, among other things, that foreign newspapers and magazines are effectively barred from entering the country.
Just ahead of Turkmenistan are Belarus and Uzbekistan, both of which feature dreadful environments for independent media and have intensified restrictions in light of recent political developments in other parts of the FSU. These highly repressive regimes maintain near total control over the news media, using a mix of intimidation and control of state resources. The judiciary, which operates at the whim of the executive in both of these countries, is a favored tool for selectively applying laws against reporters and news organizations that stray from these regimes' strict line.
The next group of countries -- Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and Kyrgyzstan (judged by conditions in 2004 under the rule of recently ousted President Askar Akaev) -- allowed slightly more pluralism than the worst performers but nonetheless were extremely unfriendly environments for independent journalism in 2004. Apart from Kyrgyzstan -- which has enabled some modest openings for a free press since Akaev left office on 24 March -- these countries have also tightened the screws recently, at least in part due to the political changes that emerged in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.
Russia, which joined the ranks of "Not Free" countries in 2003, enjoys a print media that can express a diversity of viewpoints. The Kremlin, however, has worked diligently to bring the country's most influential media, the main national television networks -- Channel 1 (ORT), NTV, and RTR -- under its control. The extent of television news convergence came into full view during the presidential election campaign in March 2004, when coverage was steeply slanted toward President Vladimir Putin.
The picture in the FSU stands in stark contrast to the new EU member states, where a basic consolidation of press independence has been established. The Baltic states, which were involuntary members of the Soviet Union but nonetheless have had to overcome the legacy and pathologies of Soviet-era media, have managed to establish both the framework and practice supporting press freedom. Estonia has distinguished itself with a widely recognized effort to boost Internet access, making it one of the most cyber-oriented countries in Europe.
The media in Southeastern Europe are a mixed picture. Although media are active and diverse in much of the region, many countries still confront difficult challenges in anchoring unfettered and independent news media. Intimidation and violence against journalists who report on corruption remains an issue. A lack of transparency of ownership in the postprivatization phase is another major challenge confronting the countries of Southeastern Europe.
The degree to which each country permits the free flow of information determines the classification of its media as "Free," "Partly Free," or "Not Free." In the wider regional context, over the last five years the ranks of "Not Free" countries have grown from seven in 2001 to 10 in 2005 (Armenia, Moldova, and Russia moved to the "Not Free" column). Ukraine this year moved from the "Not Free" category to "Partly Free." In 2001, 11 countries were ranked "Partly Free;" today, there are nine countries in this category. Nine countries were categorized as "Free" five years ago. The eight new EU member states are the only countries in this category in 2005, as Bulgaria slipped from "Free" to "Partly Free" in 2004.
The countries that have enjoyed recent political change are worthy of attention over the coming cycle. While Ukraine and Georgia remain in the early stages of their political transition, the rotation of power in those countries brought with them changes in the media landscape. As a result of this opening, Ukraine moved from the "Not Free" to "Partly Free" category. These two countries -- as well as Kyrgyzstan -- have an opportunity to build on the nascent changes to create the sort of enabling environment for independent media that could be a model for others in the region, whose press freedom performance is so woefully deficient.Christopher Walker is director of studies at Freedom House. 2005 is the 25th year in which Freedom House has issued its annual publication, "Freedom of the Press: A Global Survey of Media Independence," which assesses the degree of print, broadcast, and Internet freedom in every country in the world (http://www.freedomhouse.org)
JAILED BELARUSIAN, UKRAINIAN DEMONSTRATORS IN MINSK GO ON HUNGER STRIKE. Zmitser Dashkevich, Kiryl Shymanovich, and Syarzhuk Vysitski from Belarus jointly with Ihor Huz, Andrey Bokach, Oleksandr Hrymalyuk, Oleksiy Panasyuk, and Oleksandr Mashlay from Ukraine went on a hunger strike on 28 April in the detention center on Akrestsina Street in Minsk, RFE/RL's Belarus Service reported. The group was detained during an antipresidential demonstration in Minsk on 26 April and sentenced to jail terms the following day (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 and 28 April 2005). Kyiv has officially accused Minsk of violating the 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms by denying opportunities for proper legal defense to the Ukrainian detainees. Ukrainian Consul in Minsk Vasyl Serdeha met with the jailed Ukrainians on 28 April. Activists of Ukraine's National Alliance youth movement picketed the Belarusian Embassy in Kyiv on 28 April and reportedly presented the mission with a textbook on human rights and a basket of oranges, symbolic of last year's Orange Revolution in Ukraine. JM
GERMANY PLEDGES TO CONTINUE ASSISTANCE TO CHORNOBYL VICTIMS IN BELARUS. The German Embassy in Minsk said in a statement on 28 April that Germans are determined to continue assistance to victims of the Chornobyl nuclear accident "regardless of multiple bureaucratic obstacles," Belapan reported. The embassy noted that since the disaster occurred in 1986, German state and private organizations and people have provided 360 million euros ($466 million) in assistance to Chornobyl victims, adding that this sum does not include Germany's contribution to the UN, EU, and other international Chornobyl-related programs. In 2004, Germany's Chornobyl aid to Belarus amounted to $20 million. About 11,000 children from the Chornobyl-affected areas visited Germany for recuperation or treatment. The statement came two days after President Lukashenka claimed that the West has not provided any humanitarian aid to Chornobyl victims in Belarus, Ukraine, or Russia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 April 2005). JM
UKRAINIAN PROSECUTORS PROBE FORMER REGIONAL OFFICIAL FOR VOTE RIGGING... The Prosecutor-General's Office opened a criminal case against Viktor Dyadchenko, former deputy chief of the Zakarpatska Oblast administration, who is charged with vote rigging and theft of documents during local elections in Mukacheve in 2004 (see "RFE/RL Belarus and Ukraine Report," 28 April 2004), Interfax reported on 29 April. Dyadchenko was arrested earlier this week. "It has been established that during the mayoral elections in Mukacheve on 18-19 April 2004, Dyadchenko, as an official acting with an organized group, deliberately entered inaccurate information in documents of district election commissions. In abusing his powers, he pressured the heads of election commissions to make changes in completed ballot-counting documents," the Prosecutor-General's Office press service said. JM
...AND ANOTHER FOR EXTORTION. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry directorate for Sumy Oblast has initiated a criminal case against Volodymyr Shcherban, former head of the Sumy Oblast administration, on charges of extortion, Interfax reported on 29 April, quoting Interior Ministry spokeswoman Inna Kysil. According to Kysil, Shcherban in his administrative capacity "forced the managers of a number of enterprises to conduct transactions involving property" and demanded that controlling stakes in these businesses be sold to companies controlled by him. Shcherban's current whereabouts are unknown, Kysil added. JM
HIV INFECTION RATE ACCELERATES IN UKRAINE. The Health Ministry announced on 28 April that the registered number of new infections with the HIV virus in Ukraine in 2004 amounted to 12,500, which is 25 percent more than the previous year, Interfax reported. From 1987 to 1 March 2005 Ukraine officially registered 76,900 HIV-positive Ukrainians and 314 HIV-positive foreigners. More than 9,000 people subsequently developed AIDS and 5,500 died of it. The ministry estimated that the number of HIV-infected Ukrainians could rise to as many as 479,000 by 2014 at present infection rates. JM
SMUGGLING ARRESTS RISE IN TRANSDNIESTER-UKRAINE BORDER. Arrests and confiscations of contraband have more than doubled on the Transdniester portion of the Ukrainian-Moldovan border, dpa reported on 28 April. According to a statement released by the Ukrainian government, smuggling-related detentions and confiscations in the first four months of 2005 have risen 160 percent over the same period the year before. Moldovan officials had repeatedly accused Kyiv of turning a blind eye to smuggling through Transdniester. But since his election last year, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has pledged to tighten up the border (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 and 26 April 2005). BW
POLAND TO HELP MOLDOVA WITH EU ON TRANSDNIESTER. Polish First Deputy Foreign Minister Jan Truszczynski said Warsaw will use its influence within the European Union to push Brussels toward deeper engagement on the Transdniester issue, Infotag and BASA reported on 28 April. Truszczynski made the pledge at a meeting with Moldovan Reintegration Minister Vasile Sova, adding that the EU could get involved in resolving the dispute over the separatist area under the auspices of the Action Plan recently signed by Brussels and Chisinau (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 April 2005). Truszczynski also said deploying international monitors on the Transdniestrian part of the Moldova-Ukraine border could pave the way toward a lasting settlement of the conflict in the breakaway region. BW
World Press Freedom Day, marked on 3 May, offers an opportunity to take stock of the challenges individual journalists and news organizations face in fulfilling their professional duties. Dramatically different stories have emerged in countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) and the wider geographic swath to the west and south that represented the communist world during the Cold War.
The overall picture for independent media in the 12 countries of the non-Baltic FSU is grim. Journalists face enormous obstacles in settings where authorities have denied an enabling environment for independent journalism and the free flow of information. Despite the considerable attention and resources devoted to the issue of press freedom, the overall trend in recent years in the FSU has been toward even tighter control by the authorities. Ten of the 12 non-Baltic FSU countries are ranked "Not Free" in the 2005 edition of Freedom House's "Freedom of the Press" survey.
On the most repressive end of the continuum is Turkmenistan, where the government controls all radio and television broadcasts and the print media. An Orwellian-like domination of the information sector leaves a gaping information vacuum that is filled only by the bizarre musings of President Saparmurat Niyazov.
The Turkmen authorities seem determined to demolish any remaining vestiges of contact with the outside world from a country that is already severely isolated. A recently issued Niyazov decree forbids foreign postal services from delivering to Turkmenistan. This measure means, among other things, that foreign newspapers and magazines are effectively barred from entering the country.
Just ahead of Turkmenistan are Belarus and Uzbekistan, both of which feature dreadful environments for independent media and have intensified restrictions in light of recent political developments in other parts of the FSU. These highly repressive regimes maintain near total control over the news media, using a mix of intimidation and control of state resources. The judiciary, which operates at the whim of the executive in both of these countries, is a favored tool for selectively applying laws against reporters and news organizations that stray from these regimes' strict line.
The next group of countries -- Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and Kyrgyzstan (judged by conditions in 2004 under the rule of recently ousted President Askar Akaev) -- allowed slightly more pluralism than the worst performers but nonetheless were extremely unfriendly environments for independent journalism in 2004. Apart from Kyrgyzstan -- which has enabled some modest openings for a free press since Akaev left office on 24 March -- these countries have also tightened the screws recently, at least in part due to the political changes that emerged in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.
Russia, which joined the ranks of "Not Free" countries in 2003, enjoys a print media that can express a diversity of viewpoints. The Kremlin, however, has worked diligently to bring the country's most influential media, the main national television networks -- Channel 1 (ORT), NTV, and RTR -- under its control. The extent of television news convergence came into full view during the presidential election campaign in March 2004, when coverage was steeply slanted toward President Vladimir Putin.
The picture in the FSU stands in stark contrast to the new EU member states, where a basic consolidation of press independence has been established. The Baltic states, which were involuntary members of the Soviet Union but nonetheless have had to overcome the legacy and pathologies of Soviet-era media, have managed to establish both the framework and practice supporting press freedom. Estonia has distinguished itself with a widely recognized effort to boost Internet access, making it one of the most cyber-oriented countries in Europe.
The media in Southeastern Europe are a mixed picture. Although media are active and diverse in much of the region, many countries still confront difficult challenges in anchoring unfettered and independent news media. Intimidation and violence against journalists who report on corruption remains an issue. A lack of transparency of ownership in the postprivatization phase is another major challenge confronting the countries of Southeastern Europe.
The degree to which each country permits the free flow of information determines the classification of its media as "Free," "Partly Free," or "Not Free." In the wider regional context, over the last five years the ranks of "Not Free" countries have grown from seven in 2001 to 10 in 2005 (Armenia, Moldova, and Russia moved to the "Not Free" column). Ukraine this year moved from the "Not Free" category to "Partly Free." In 2001, 11 countries were ranked "Partly Free;" today, there are nine countries in this category. Nine countries were categorized as "Free" five years ago. The eight new EU member states are the only countries in this category in 2005, as Bulgaria slipped from "Free" to "Partly Free" in 2004.
The countries that have enjoyed recent political change are worthy of attention over the coming cycle. While Ukraine and Georgia remain in the early stages of their political transition, the rotation of power in those countries brought with them changes in the media landscape. As a result of this opening, Ukraine moved from the "Not Free" to "Partly Free" category. These two countries -- as well as Kyrgyzstan -- have an opportunity to build on the nascent changes to create the sort of enabling environment for independent media that could be a model for others in the region, whose press freedom performance is so woefully deficient.Christopher Walker is director of studies at Freedom House. 2005 is the 25th year in which Freedom House has issued its annual publication, "Freedom of the Press: A Global Survey of Media Independence," which assesses the degree of print, broadcast, and Internet freedom in every country in the world (http://www.freedomhouse.org)