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END NOTE: UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT SACKS GOVERNMENT, OFFERING MORE
QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
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PUTIN DOWNPLAYS UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT CRISIS... President Vladimir Putin said during a visit to Germany on 8 September that he does not wish to dramatize the government crisis in Ukraine, where President Viktor Yushchenko sacked Prime Minister Yuliya Timoshenko's government over allegations of corruption, ITAR-TASS reported the same day. "I'm convinced that the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian leadership will find a right decision," Putin said during a news conference with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, adding that he had spoken to Yushchenko by telephone. "I've talked with Viktor Yushchenko, and I believe that the situation in Ukraine is under his control," said Putin, whose overt support for Yushchenko's rival in the run-up to Ukraine's Orange Revolution put a strain on initial dialogue with the new administration. "Ukraine is surviving a difficult period. There is nothing ordinary of the resignation of the Ukrainian government ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections." BW
INTERNATIONAL MONITOR HOPES FOR FAIR BALLOT IN AZERBAIJAN. Ambassador Geert-Hinrich Ahrens, who is head of the OSCE's Election Observation Mission for the 6 November parliamentary ballot in Azerbaijan, told journalists in Baku on 8 September that Azerbaijani authorities have failed to implement in their entirety a number of "important recommendations" contained in OSCE assessments of previous Azerbaijani ballots, zerkalo.az reported on 9 September. Ahrens added, however, that given the requisite political will, it is still possible to hold democratic elections under the current Election Code. Ahrens, who headed the OSCE Observation Mission during last winter's Ukrainian presidential ballot, warned that drawing comparisons between the pre-election situation in Ukraine and Azerbaijan is inappropriate and could lead to "undesirable consequences." LF
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT SACKS GOVERNMENT, OFFERING MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
President Viktor Yushchenko on 8 September dismissed the cabinet of Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko and accepted the previous day's resignation of National Security and Defense Council Secretary Petro Poroshenko. A few days earlier, Yushchenko accepted the resignation of his chief of staff, Oleksandr Zinchenko. Thus, three of Yushchenko's closest allies and brothers-in-arms from the November-December 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine have found themselves outside the government and are not likely to return to it before the March 2006 parliamentary elections. The Orange Revolution, in accordance with a well-known saying, has started to devour its children.
The dismissal of the Ukrainian government took place amidst allegations of corruption in the president's inner circle, which were publicly voiced by Zinchenko and Tymoshenko's closest aide, Mykhaylo Brodskyy. Both Zinchenko and Brodskyy pointed to Poroshenko as the main backstage operator in Ukrainian politics, who allegedly obstructed the government's activities and pursued private interests in his official position. Yushchenko, in explaining his decision to sack Tymoshenko's cabinet and Poroshenko, said his colleagues in the government have "lost the team spirit" and "concentrated on PR activities" instead of working toward implementing Orange Revolution ideals.
According to most Ukrainian commentators, Yushchenko's radical move on 8 September has temporarily strengthened his position as the top arbiter in the Ukrainian political arena and the guarantor of the country's stability. Both the government and the president have been steadily losing popularity in recent months among the public, while the Orange Revolution pledge to return dishonestly privatized properties to the people has been perceived by an increasing number of people in Ukraine as just a slogan covering the redistribution of those properties among oligarchic clans. In the short run, Yushchenko appears to have gained a lot in the eyes of those Ukrainians who still believe that the Orange Revolution was about more democracy and less corruption in their country than about bestowing government posts and benefits upon revolution heroes.
However, Yushchenko may well find it problematic to achieve any further progress in pushing the Orange Revolution program. Without doubt, Yushchenko has made a very prudent move by appointing Yuriy Yekhanurov as caretaker prime minister. Yekhanurov, who has extensive experience in many government posts, is widely seen as a technocrat and is therefore expected to form a government of experts and economists rather than revolutionary combatants. And Yekhanurov stands a very good chance of being approved by the Verkhovna Rada. But it is very unlikely that he will be allowed by parliament to pursue any radical reforms prior to the March 2006 parliamentary elections.
As testified by a number of abortive votes in the Verkhovna Rada in July on government-proposed bills to facilitate Ukraine's joining the World Trade Organization, Yushchenko cannot count on a reliable parliamentary majority to support his reformist agenda. Now, after Tymoshenko's dismissal, the chances of forging a lasting parliamentary alliance for the government are even slimmer. The best that can be expected from the new cabinet is to maintain macroeconomic stability in the country in the run-up to and during the 2006 parliamentary election campaign, and to secure supplies of Russian gas for 2006 at a tolerable price.
While Tymoshenko was prime minister, it was understood that Yushchenko's Our Ukraine People's Union and the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc would form a parliamentary election coalition, preferably together with the People's Party headed by parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, to counter the forces that in the Orange Revolution supported Yushchenko's presidential rival, former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. Now the probability of such a coalition seems to be virtually nil. On the contrary, many expect a bitter election confrontation between pro-Yushchenko and pro-Tymoshenko forces. Such a development might lead to a serious political disorientation among adherents of the former Yushchenko-Tymoshenko revolutionary duet and add to their further disillusionment.
Yushchenko's political position may also be considerably undermined by the political reform that is going to take effect on 1 January. The reform, which was adopted as a compromise to overcome the presidential-election standoff in 2004, will shift the center of political power in Ukraine from the president to the cabinet and parliament. Some in Ukraine speculated that Yushchenko might somehow cancel this reform to prevent a curtailment of his prerogatives. Now that Tymoshenko has become Yushchenko's political rival and will almost certainly fight for the post of prime minister against the pro-Yushchenko forces in the upcoming parliamentary elections, she will have little incentive to cancel the political reform to preserve Yushchenko's political clout. In any event the stakes in the 2006 parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be very high and that the elections themselves will be a political fight with no rules.
END NOTE: UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT SACKS GOVERNMENT, OFFERING MORE
QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
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EU HOLDS ANOTHER TENDER FOR RADIO BROADCASTS TO BELARUS. In November, the European Commission is going to announce a winner of its tender for organizing radio broadcasts to Belarus as of 1 January 2006, RFE/RL's Belarus Service reported on 9 September. The winner is to obtain 2 million euros ($2.5 million) for organizing and sending radio programs to Belarus during two years. European Parliament Deputy Speaker Janusz Onyszkiewicz told RFE/RL that a bidder for the EU tender is required to have no less than 1 million listeners in former Soviet countries and report no less than 3 million euros in its yearly turnover. "This means that the tender will be decided in a circle of such giants as Deutsche Welle, BBC, Radio France International, and Euronews," Onyszkiewicz said. "Polish Radio, which has had a Belarusian-language service for a long time, or Radio Racja in Bialystok [broadcast in Belarusian to Belarus on shortwave from 1999-2002] will remain outside this tender," Onyszkiewicz said, adding that the EU-sponsored broadcasts to Belarus will most likely be in the Russian language. Earlier this year, the European Commission awarded Deutsche Welle 138,000 euros ($169,000) annually for three years to organize a Russian-language program to Belarus. The move provoked vociferous protests among Belarusian intellectuals and supporters of the Belarusian native cultural and linguistic identity (see "RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report," 24 August 2005). JM
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT DISSOLVES CABINET... Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko on 8 September signed a decree "on terminating powers of Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko and on the dismissal of the Cabinet of Ministers," according to the president's official website (http://www.president.gov.ua). The president named Yuriy Yekhanurov as acting prime minister, and decreed that members of the cabinet continue to serve until a new one is formed. The resignations of National Security and Defense Council (RNBO) Secretary Petro Poroshenko, who has been involved in a public feud with Tymoshenko, and Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for Humanitarian Issues Mykola Tomenko were also accepted on 8 September. Yushchenko said at a press conference the same day that his decision to dissolve the government was prompted by constant infighting. "Every day I had to intervene in conflicts between the cabinet and the [RNBO], between the [RNBO] and the state secretary, between the cabinet and parliament. These conflicts became the main item on the agenda," Kanal 5 television quoted Yushchenko as saying. "The president should not have to work as a nanny to settle relations between these people. My colleagues have lost their team spirit and their faith. I say this with sadness, because these people remain my friends." MS
...AND NAMES ECONOMIST AS ACTING PRIME MINISTER. Acting Prime Minister Yekhanurov said on 8 September that his first task is to ensure that "government members continue their work, and there should be stability," Interfax reported, citing his press secretary. "Therefore, my goal now is to set up a government and start working efficiently." Yekhanurov was reportedly traveling to Kyiv from Odessa to begin negotiations with former government members and party leaders on 9 September. Yekhanurov, who was serving as Dnipropetrovsk Oblast governor, has worked with Yushchenko since 1999. Yekhanurov played a key role in Ukraine's early privatization efforts, chairing the State Property Fund from 1994-97. He also worked briefly as first deputy head of former President Leonid Kuchma's cabinet after then-Prime Minister Yushchenko's government was dismissed in May 2001. Yekhanurov left that position in November of that year to serve as deputy head of the campaign headquarters of Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc, and is a prominent figure in the pro-presidential Our Ukraine People's Union (NSNU) that was formed in March (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 March 2005). Yekhanurov supports Ukraine's membership of the Single Economic Space with Russia and is considered to be a liberal economist. MS
UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT LEADERS URGED TO SUPPORT NEW PRIME MINISTER. President Yushchenko met with leaders of parliament factions on 9 September in an effort to convince them to support acting Prime Minister Yekhanurov, international media reported. "Nobody wants conflict and misunderstanding," he said in a closed-door meeting, according to his website (http://www.president.gov.ua). "If this happens, I am sure we should face things honestly and courageously and give an absolutely balanced and calm answer." Observers are closely watching the reaction of Tymoshenko, who campaigned side by side with Yushchenko during the Orange Revolution and whose support is considered key to the success of the president's decision to dissolve the government. Tymoshenko was quoted as saying on Ukrainian television that her dismissal was "very unfair," but that Ukrainians' lives will continue to improve, Reuters reported. She left a note in her office wishing Yekhanurov success as her successor, according to Interfax. MS
WORLD LEADERS DOWNPLAY UKRAINIAN POLITICAL CRISIS. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who recently accused Ukraine's government of corruption, said during a joint press conference in Berlin with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder that "I would not dramatize the events taking place in Ukraine now," ITAR-TASS reported. "Ukraine is going through a complicated stage of its development," Putin said, adding that Russia will continue to "contribute to stabilizing a country to which we are linked with many bonds." U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said at a press briefing on 8 September that "this is a matter for the Ukrainian people. Young democracies sometimes have changes in government, but as long as those changes are made in a constitutional manner, in a peaceful manner, that's all part of the democratic political process." Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, whose Rose Revolution preceded Yushchenko's Orange Revolution, said on 8 September that the Ukrainian president's "main quality" is "knowing exactly at the decisive moment what must be done," AP reported. Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said that Ukraine's political crisis is a symptom of the country's democratic transition, and that "Polish-Ukrainian relations will not suffer as a result of these changes," AP reported. MS
NEMTSOV PRAISES UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT'S DISMISSAL. Boris Nemtsov, the former leader of Russia's liberal Union of Rightist Forces who now advises Ukrainian President Yushchenko, hailed the Ukrainian government ouster, mosnews.com reported on 8 September. "Tymoshenko's government has led Ukraine to an economic crisis," Nemtsov told Rosbalt news agency the same day. "Sustained recession has been seen in all the economic spheres over the last few months, the outflow of foreign capital has become stronger...[and] an extremely hostile investment climate has emerged. There is a need to take responsibility for such a policy." BW
TRANSDNIESTER COMMISSION TO MEET AGAIN AFTER FIVE-MONTH HIATUS. The Joint Control Commission (JCC) overseeing the peacekeeping operation in Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniester will meet again on 9 September for the first time in five months, Russian representative to the JCC Viktor Shanin told ITAR-TASS (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 July 2005). The commission comprises representatives from Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Moldova, and Transdniester. Shanin said the Russian, Moldovan, and Transdniestrian representatives have agreed to hold an "urgent meeting," "at which we plan to solve organizational issues -- appoint new military observers from Russia and Moldova, and a new member of the commission" from Transdniester. He added that resuming talks "is a complicated process and it demands time, but it is better to move by small steps than to sit in trenches." DW
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT SACKS GOVERNMENT, OFFERING MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
President Viktor Yushchenko on 8 September dismissed the cabinet of Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko and accepted the previous day's resignation of National Security and Defense Council Secretary Petro Poroshenko. A few days earlier, Yushchenko accepted the resignation of his chief of staff, Oleksandr Zinchenko. Thus, three of Yushchenko's closest allies and brothers-in-arms from the November-December 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine have found themselves outside the government and are not likely to return to it before the March 2006 parliamentary elections. The Orange Revolution, in accordance with a well-known saying, has started to devour its children.
The dismissal of the Ukrainian government took place amidst allegations of corruption in the president's inner circle, which were publicly voiced by Zinchenko and Tymoshenko's closest aide, Mykhaylo Brodskyy. Both Zinchenko and Brodskyy pointed to Poroshenko as the main backstage operator in Ukrainian politics, who allegedly obstructed the government's activities and pursued private interests in his official position. Yushchenko, in explaining his decision to sack Tymoshenko's cabinet and Poroshenko, said his colleagues in the government have "lost the team spirit" and "concentrated on PR activities" instead of working toward implementing Orange Revolution ideals.
According to most Ukrainian commentators, Yushchenko's radical move on 8 September has temporarily strengthened his position as the top arbiter in the Ukrainian political arena and the guarantor of the country's stability. Both the government and the president have been steadily losing popularity in recent months among the public, while the Orange Revolution pledge to return dishonestly privatized properties to the people has been perceived by an increasing number of people in Ukraine as just a slogan covering the redistribution of those properties among oligarchic clans. In the short run, Yushchenko appears to have gained a lot in the eyes of those Ukrainians who still believe that the Orange Revolution was about more democracy and less corruption in their country than about bestowing government posts and benefits upon revolution heroes.
However, Yushchenko may well find it problematic to achieve any further progress in pushing the Orange Revolution program. Without doubt, Yushchenko has made a very prudent move by appointing Yuriy Yekhanurov as caretaker prime minister. Yekhanurov, who has extensive experience in many government posts, is widely seen as a technocrat and is therefore expected to form a government of experts and economists rather than revolutionary combatants. And Yekhanurov stands a very good chance of being approved by the Verkhovna Rada. But it is very unlikely that he will be allowed by parliament to pursue any radical reforms prior to the March 2006 parliamentary elections.
As testified by a number of abortive votes in the Verkhovna Rada in July on government-proposed bills to facilitate Ukraine's joining the World Trade Organization, Yushchenko cannot count on a reliable parliamentary majority to support his reformist agenda. Now, after Tymoshenko's dismissal, the chances of forging a lasting parliamentary alliance for the government are even slimmer. The best that can be expected from the new cabinet is to maintain macroeconomic stability in the country in the run-up to and during the 2006 parliamentary election campaign, and to secure supplies of Russian gas for 2006 at a tolerable price.
While Tymoshenko was prime minister, it was understood that Yushchenko's Our Ukraine People's Union and the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc would form a parliamentary election coalition, preferably together with the People's Party headed by parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, to counter the forces that in the Orange Revolution supported Yushchenko's presidential rival, former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. Now the probability of such a coalition seems to be virtually nil. On the contrary, many expect a bitter election confrontation between pro-Yushchenko and pro-Tymoshenko forces. Such a development might lead to a serious political disorientation among adherents of the former Yushchenko-Tymoshenko revolutionary duet and add to their further disillusionment.
Yushchenko's political position may also be considerably undermined by the political reform that is going to take effect on 1 January. The reform, which was adopted as a compromise to overcome the presidential-election standoff in 2004, will shift the center of political power in Ukraine from the president to the cabinet and parliament. Some in Ukraine speculated that Yushchenko might somehow cancel this reform to prevent a curtailment of his prerogatives. Now that Tymoshenko has become Yushchenko's political rival and will almost certainly fight for the post of prime minister against the pro-Yushchenko forces in the upcoming parliamentary elections, she will have little incentive to cancel the political reform to preserve Yushchenko's political clout. In any event the stakes in the 2006 parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be very high and that the elections themselves will be a political fight with no rules.