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TURKMENISTAN SAYS DIRECT GAS SHIPMENTS TO UKRAINE NOT POSSIBLE. Turkmen Oil and Gas Minister Gurbanmurat Ataev stated on March 20 that Ukraine must arrange deliveries of Turkmen gas with Russia, which controls the transit route to Ukraine, News Central Asia reported. Ataev said that Ukraine must make "transportation arrangements" through Russia's Gazprom, adding that Ukraine "has been unable to make any arrangements with Gazprom." Ataev also noted that the maximum capacity of the Central Asia-Center pipeline is 40 billion cubic meters a year and that "the Russian party has notified Turkmenistan that it is buying Turkmen gas at the border of Uzbekistan and sells it to Ukraine through RosUkrEnergo." The report also stated: "In addition to 40 billion cubic meters for Ukraine, Turkmenistan has promised to sell 30 billion cubic meters, probably more, to Gazprom in 2006." It did not explain how these shipments could be made in light of the existing pipeline capacity. Ataev reaffirmed that Ukraine's debt to Turkmenistan stands at $158.9 million, noting that Ukraine has "agreed to make cash payments of $59.6 million and $28.7 million" and commodity shipments totaling $55.1 million. A Ukrainian delegation headed by Energy Minister Ivan Plachkov is expected to leave for Ashgabat on March 22 to continue talks. DK
While Western leaders have openly expressed their distaste for authoritarian Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently supported his regime, both politically and economically. Russia has been providing the country with cheap oil and gas, generous loans, and has cancelled customs duties for Belarusian exports to Russia.
According to official preliminary results, President Lukashenka won a landslide victory in the March 19 presidential election, garnering 82.6 percent of the vote. An official victory would enable Lukashenka, a former collective-farm manager who has ruled Belarus since 1994, to win a third term and remain in office for five more years.
Putin formally congratulated Lukashenka on his victory in a March 20 statement, saying that the "results of the elections point to voters' trust in your policies and to the further growth of the prosperity of the Belarusian people."
Opposition leaders are claiming the vote was rigged and have called for new elections. Several thousand people have massed in a central Minsk square to protest the results. But while the huge margin of victory granted to Lukashenka by the preliminary results has raised some eyebrows, it is widely believed that he does enjoy enough support at home to have won a majority and avoided a runoff.
Many political observers say Lukashenka owes his popularity not only to intense propaganda, but also to Russia's robust economic aid, which has allowed him to raise pensions and salaries. But why is Russia throwing its weight behind such a controversial figure as Lukashenka, who has been isolated by most Western leaders and branded a dictator by Washington?
Yevgeny Volk, director of the Heritage Foundation think tank in Moscow, said Russia's support reflects its fears of losing its closest ally in opposition to NATO's eastward expansion. "From the point of view of the Russian political mentality, Belarus is a very important stronghold of resistance to NATO's eastward expansion, a containment of this NATO expansion that is often discussed in Russian political circles," Volk said. "In the Cold War paradigm that is still very present in Russian politics, Belarus plays an important role as a stronghold against NATO."
While the European Union on March 20 expressed its disapproval of the way in which the presidential election was conducted and said it will likely impose sanctions, Russia hailed the vote as free and fair.
Strategic interests aside, Russia has a number of reasons to back Lukashenka. The Kremlin has been anxious to prevent a repetition of Ukraine's Orange Revolution, which swept the Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko to power in 2005. Some observers also say that by allowing Lukashenka to step into the limelight, Putin's regime hopes to deflect criticism of its own rights violations.
Economically, Russia's warm ties with Belarus may have helped the state-controlled Russian gas giant Gazprom to wrest control of the Belarusian section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline from a reluctant Lukashenka last December. This pipeline carries 10 percent of Russian gas exports to Europe.
But Putin and Lukashenka have not always enjoyed a close relationship. While Russia and Belarus have long planned to join in a union state that would use the Russian ruble as its currency, Lukashenka was severely angered by a proposal Putin made in 2002 under which Belarus would virtually become a part of Russia.
Nevertheless, Heritage Foundation Director Volk said Moscow's support of Lukashenka is unlikely to falter in the future, provided the Belarusian president remains loyal to the Kremlin. "This [support] will take place until a person is found in Belarus who, firstly, will be at least as loyal to the Kremlin as Lukashenka, and secondly will enjoy as much support from the population," Volk said. "So far, not a single politician has satisfied the Kremlin by meeting these criteria. There are people who can be supported by the population, but the Kremlin strongly fears that they will turn to the West like the Ukrainian government."
Other observers, however, say Moscow's backing of Lukashenka could tarnish Russia's image abroad and harm its ties with Western countries, particularly in the aftermath of the March 19 election.
...AND SEEKS TO RESTAGE KYIV'S MAYDAN IN MINSK. Presidential challenger Milinkevich called on his supporters on October Square in Minsk on March 20 to remain on the square all night, RFE/RL's Belarusian Service and Belapan reported. Several hundred people stayed with Milinkevich and another opposition candidate, Alyaksandr Kazulin, on the square until morning and erected 18 tents, in an apparent emulation of the tactic of the Ukrainian opposition, which erected a stage on Independence Square (Maydan Nezalezhnosti) and a tent city on Khreshchatyk Boulevard in Kyiv during the Orange Revolution in 2004. "We must remain on this square. This square is ours. It is Belarusian land. We were here last night and we started fighting for truth and freedom. For Truth! For Justice!" Milinkevich told the crowd on October Square. Police cordoned off the square but restrained from using force against people remaining there. RFE/RL's Belarus Service reported that police arrested some 30 opposition activists in Minsk during the night, including opposition leaders Anatol Lyabedzka and Alyaksandr Dabravolski. JM
U.S. AMBASSADOR ADMIRES UKRAINE'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst told students at the Kyiv-based Wisconsin International University on March 20 that the parliamentary election campaign has thus far proved to be the most free in independent Ukraine, the Action Ukraine newsletter reported. Herbst also pointed to some shortcomings in the campaign, however. "There are credible reports that whole buildings or city blocks of voters do not appear on the lists for Donetsk and Zhytomyr," he said. "And there are credible reports about the problem created by the transliteration of voter names from Russian to Ukrainian. It is essential that the authorities do everything possible to address these and all other problems with the voter lists. It is likewise essential that all voting precincts be adequately staffed with commissioners." JM
UKRAINIAN TV JOURNALISTS DETAINED AT BELARUSIAN BORDER. Reporter Mykhaylo Shamanov and cameraman Serhiy Dakhin from the New Channel television were detained by Belarusian border guards while returning from Minsk to Kyiv on March 20, Interfax-Ukraine and the "Ukrayinska pravda" website (http://www.pravda.com.ua) reported. The guards confiscated four videocassettes containing footage of an opposition rally in Minsk and a news conference given by Belarusian presidential candidate Alyaksandr Milinkevich. The tapes were reportedly taken for an examination to determine whether their content violates Belarusian laws. JM
RUSSIAN ENVOY IN MOLDOVA ASSAILS NEW CUSTOMS REGULATIONS. Russian Ambassador to Moldova Nikolai Ryabov said on March 20 that new customs rules will destabilize the region, AP reported the same day. Ukraine and Moldova implemented the new rules on March 3, requiring that all exports from the breakaway Transdniester region clear Moldovan customs (see "RFE/RL Newsline," March 6, 7, 8, and 16, 2006). Transdniestrian officials have called the move an economic blockade. "Ukraine has joined Moldovan attempts to annex Transdniester to its economic space," Ryabov said, and called the new customs rules an attempt to disrupt Transdniester's economy and stir protests against pro-Moscow leader Igor Smirnov, who has led the region since 1990. BW
While Western leaders have openly expressed their distaste for authoritarian Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently supported his regime, both politically and economically. Russia has been providing the country with cheap oil and gas, generous loans, and has cancelled customs duties for Belarusian exports to Russia.
According to official preliminary results, President Lukashenka won a landslide victory in the March 19 presidential election, garnering 82.6 percent of the vote. An official victory would enable Lukashenka, a former collective-farm manager who has ruled Belarus since 1994, to win a third term and remain in office for five more years.
Putin formally congratulated Lukashenka on his victory in a March 20 statement, saying that the "results of the elections point to voters' trust in your policies and to the further growth of the prosperity of the Belarusian people."
Opposition leaders are claiming the vote was rigged and have called for new elections. Several thousand people have massed in a central Minsk square to protest the results. But while the huge margin of victory granted to Lukashenka by the preliminary results has raised some eyebrows, it is widely believed that he does enjoy enough support at home to have won a majority and avoided a runoff.
Many political observers say Lukashenka owes his popularity not only to intense propaganda, but also to Russia's robust economic aid, which has allowed him to raise pensions and salaries. But why is Russia throwing its weight behind such a controversial figure as Lukashenka, who has been isolated by most Western leaders and branded a dictator by Washington?
Yevgeny Volk, director of the Heritage Foundation think tank in Moscow, said Russia's support reflects its fears of losing its closest ally in opposition to NATO's eastward expansion. "From the point of view of the Russian political mentality, Belarus is a very important stronghold of resistance to NATO's eastward expansion, a containment of this NATO expansion that is often discussed in Russian political circles," Volk said. "In the Cold War paradigm that is still very present in Russian politics, Belarus plays an important role as a stronghold against NATO."
While the European Union on March 20 expressed its disapproval of the way in which the presidential election was conducted and said it will likely impose sanctions, Russia hailed the vote as free and fair.
Strategic interests aside, Russia has a number of reasons to back Lukashenka. The Kremlin has been anxious to prevent a repetition of Ukraine's Orange Revolution, which swept the Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko to power in 2005. Some observers also say that by allowing Lukashenka to step into the limelight, Putin's regime hopes to deflect criticism of its own rights violations.
Economically, Russia's warm ties with Belarus may have helped the state-controlled Russian gas giant Gazprom to wrest control of the Belarusian section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline from a reluctant Lukashenka last December. This pipeline carries 10 percent of Russian gas exports to Europe.
But Putin and Lukashenka have not always enjoyed a close relationship. While Russia and Belarus have long planned to join in a union state that would use the Russian ruble as its currency, Lukashenka was severely angered by a proposal Putin made in 2002 under which Belarus would virtually become a part of Russia.
Nevertheless, Heritage Foundation Director Volk said Moscow's support of Lukashenka is unlikely to falter in the future, provided the Belarusian president remains loyal to the Kremlin. "This [support] will take place until a person is found in Belarus who, firstly, will be at least as loyal to the Kremlin as Lukashenka, and secondly will enjoy as much support from the population," Volk said. "So far, not a single politician has satisfied the Kremlin by meeting these criteria. There are people who can be supported by the population, but the Kremlin strongly fears that they will turn to the West like the Ukrainian government."
Other observers, however, say Moscow's backing of Lukashenka could tarnish Russia's image abroad and harm its ties with Western countries, particularly in the aftermath of the March 19 election.