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RUSSIAN OFFICIALS DOWNPLAY IMPLICATIONS OF GUAM'S TRANSFORMATION... Speaking in Moscow on May 23, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Denisov said there is "no anti-Russian factor" in the upgrading earlier that day during a summit in Kyiv of the GUAM group into an international organization, RIA Novosti reported. By contrast, Mikhail Margelov, who chairs the Federation Council's Foreign Affairs Committee, commented that "any friendship [or] partnership against [Russia] is ineffective" (see End Note). LF

On the sideline of a Council of Europe summit in Strasbourg in October 1997, the then presidents of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova proclaimed the formation of a new geopolitical alignment named GUAM. The stated aim of that alignment was to promote and defend the four members' strategic interests -- a euphemism for their shared desire to counter, with tacit U.S. support, Russia's ongoing efforts to retain its dominance over the former Soviet republics.

More than eight years later, at a GUAM summit in Kyiv on May 23, the four countries' current leaders formally announced their desire to secure recognition of GUAM as an international organization under a new name -- the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development - GUAM. They further adopted a new charter, rules of procedure and financial regulations, and a statement reaffirming their shared commitment to democracy, the rule of law, human rights and freedoms, and ensuring regional stability, and, crucially, their desire for increased cooperation with NATO and the EU.

That latter pronouncement is guaranteed to irritate Russia, which from the outset reacted to GUAM with mistrust and hostility, perceiving it as a secret weapon with which the United States planned to emasculate the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). (At a CIS summit in March 1997, then Russian President Boris Yeltsin had advocated openly undermining those pro-Western CIS states that sought to break away from Russia's sphere of influence.)

Those misgivings on Russia's part are the primary reason why defense and security cooperation has never figured prominently among GUAM's priorities, at least not publicly -- although concerns over the concessions to Russia contained in the 1997 amendments to the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe were one of the reasons for GUAM's creation. The member countries' defense ministers have met periodically, but proposals for military cooperation, including forming a GUAM peacekeeping battalion, never came to anything. Instead, the presidents of the GUAM member states in their public statements have consistently stressed the anticipated benefits of economic cooperation, especially the construction of export pipelines for Caspian oil and gas that bypass Russian territory.

Speaking in May 2000 at a joint presentation by GUAM ambassadors to the U.S. Senate, Azerbaijan's Hafiz Pashayev highlighted three main priorities: political interaction between member states in their respective efforts to integrate more closely into Euro-Atlantic and European structures, and to establish closer cooperation with NATO; economic cooperation, including the establishment of a Europe-South Caucasus-Asia transport corridor; and countering ethnic and religious intolerance. Three of the four initial GUAM members, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, were at the time of its inception, and still are, seeking solution to deadlocked ethno-territorial conflicts with former autonomies.

The decision in 1998 to route the so-called Main Export Pipeline for Azerbaijan's Caspian oil from Baku via Tbilisi to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan -- a decision that Washington wholeheartedly supported -- served to strengthen GUAM. Uzbekistan formally joined the alignment in 1999 in a demonstration of its then pro-Western orientation, but "suspended" its membership in June 2002 and in 2005 quit the organization altogether.

Uzbekistan's "suspension" of its GUAM membership in 2002 heralded a period of inactivity that led at least some commentators to question whether GUAM had a future, and whether Moldova too might terminate its membership. But the advent to power in Georgia and Ukraine in late 2003 and late 2004 of new, unequivocally pro-Western leaders breathed new life into the grouping. It was Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko who, at a GUAM summit in Chisinau in April 2005, first proposed transforming GUAM into a new international regional organization with its own office, its own secretariat, and its own plan of actions.

The May 22-23 Kyiv summit saw that proposal become reality. And speaking at a press conference after the summit, Yushchenko announced that he and his fellow presidents also signed a protocol on creating a free-trade zone and a customs union, rosbalt.ru reported. On May 22, the four GUAM foreign ministers signed a protocol on temporary trade rules intended to pave the way for the free-trade zone. Yushchenko first floated the idea of a GUAM free-trade zone five years ago, when he was Ukrainian prime minister.

Counter to the expectations of some Russian commentators, none of the four presidents announced in Kyiv that his country will withdraw from the CIS. Georgia's Mikheil Saakashvili has repeatedly hinted at that possibility in recent weeks, but prior to his departure for Kyiv he said that decision should be made by the population as a whole, presumably in a referendum. In Ukraine and Moldova too, senior politicians have alluded to the possibility of leaving the CIS, but Azerbaijan has ruled out doing so.

The contrast between the unequivocally pro-Western and pro-NATO orientation of Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova and Azerbaijan's more ambivalent position was underscored by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's statement in Kyiv on May 23 that cooperation within the energy sector will be GUAM's first priority. Those diverging priorities may in the medium term give rise to tensions between GUAM's four members, as may the economic coordination required to establish the free-trade zone.

....AND TO PROHIBIT CANADIAN, U.S. OVERFLIGHTS. President Lukashenka expressed his surprise in the National Assembly on May 23 that the Belarusian government has so far taken no retaliatory action against the refusal in April by Canada and the United State to refuel a Belarusian plane carrying two officials barred from entering these countries (see "RFE/RL Newsline," April 21, 2006), Belarusian and international news agencies reported. Lukashenka said the refueling denial by Canada and the United State was "full savagery." He said he wants to ban flights of Canadian and U.S. airplanes over Belarus. "Let them fly over the Baltic states or Ukraine, while the main route is closed. Perhaps we will lose something here, but we ought to show them our pride," Lukashenka added. JM

UKRAINIAN PREMIER SAYS 'OFFICIAL' COALITION TALKS TO START AFTER PARLIAMENT'S INAUGURATION. Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov said in an interview with the May 24 issue of the Kyiv-based daily "Ekonomicheskie izvestia" that an "official negotiation process" regarding the creation of a new ruling coalition will begin only after the inauguration of the newly elected Verkhovna Rada. "For the time being, it's just a warming-up, a preparatory work -- there is an exchange of opinions [and] ascertaining of positions of the sides under way," Yekhanurov added. The Ukrainian parliament elected on March 26 gathers for its inaugural session on May 25. President Viktor Yushchenko is expected to attend the session and make a speech. Under the amended Ukrainian Constitution that took effect on January 1, 2006, the president has the right to dissolve parliament if it fails to form a majority within 30 days after its first sitting or to form a new cabinet within 60 days after the dismissal or resignation of the previous one. JM

GUAM COUNTRIES MOVE TO CREATE FREE-TRADE ZONE. The presidents of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova (GUAM) -- Mikheil Saakashvili, Viktor Yushchenko, Ilham Aliyev, and Vladimir Voronin, respectively -- signed a protocol in Kyiv on May 23 declaring their intention of creating a free-trade zone among the four countries, UNIAN reported. The protocol followed a declaration by the four presidents to set up the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development-GUAM (see "RFE/RL Newsline," May 23, 2006, and End Note). JM

MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT TO DEBATE LEAVING CIS. President Vladimir Voronin said on May 23 that Moldova's parliament will debate a proposal to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Interfax reported the same day. "This initiative has been put forward by the opposition and will be debated in parliament. The outcome of these debates is another issue," Voronin, who is attending a summit of the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) regional grouping in Kyiv, told reporters. Voronin added that Chisinau is seeking to increase GUAM's importance. "We want to transform this body into an international organization and to continue to do everything we have been doing, but on a different basis," he said. BW

RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC

RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report Vol. 8, No. 19, 24 May 2006

A Survey of Developments in Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova by the Regional Specialists of RFE/RL's Newsline Team

AMNESTY REPORT NOTES CONTINUED RIGHTS ABUSES IN CIS. Amnesty International on May 23 released its annual report on the global state of human rights. The report's findings were mixed regarding CIS states -- a catalogue of continuing abuses with some progress. Russia was lambasted for a rise in racially motivated killings. Belarus and Azerbaijan both received criticism for cracking down on opposition activists and politicians. And Ukraine and Georgia -- countries that have improved their democratic credentials since their colored revolutions -- were chastised for their records on police torture.

As Lamzar Samba, a student from Senegal, was leaving a popular St. Petersburg nightclub in April, he was killed by a gunshot to the neck.

Russian police on May 22 detained five suspects over the killing. A sixth suspect was killed last week by police while allegedly resisting arrest.

The attack on the student was one of a spate of racially motivated attacks in Russia in recent weeks. Rights watchers say such attacks are on the rise.

Amnesty International's annual report notes that in 2005 in Russia there were at least 28 killings and 365 assaults motivated by racial hatred. Foreigners and Russian citizens from Chechnya and elsewhere in the North Caucasus have been the main targets.

Irene Khan, Amnesty's secretary-general, says there have been many other disturbing signs in Russia over the past year.

"We have seen the Russian government introducing restrictions against NGOs [nongovernmental organizations], clamping down on human rights defenders and journalists," Khan said. "We have seen the Russian government totally ignore and refuse to take action against its own security forces in Chechnya, who have committed human rights abuses."

Russia's apparent backsliding on human rights has caused many observers to question the country's tenure as chair of the Council of Europe's Committee of Ministers and presidency of the Group of Eight (G-8) leading industrialized nations.

Judit Arenas, a senior spokeswoman for Amnesty, says Russia has taken some positive steps. She cites President Vladimir Putin's recognition of racism as a problem during his recent address to the nation.

But she adds that Russia should do more and should set a leading example on the international stage.

"Russia actually blocked major resolutions at the UN Security Council on Darfur," Arenas said. "It's got a major problem on its doorstep in Chechnya, which has not been resolved. There are other issues in the Caucasus and it has to lead by example and actually clearly demonstrate that if it wants to be a global player [then] it must actually abide by the rules of the game."

The Amnesty report criticizes Belarus and Azerbaijan for their violent crackdowns on opposition activists and journalists. In Armenia, despite commitments made to the Council of Europe, conscientious objectors to military service still remain in jail.

But what of Ukraine and Georgia, two countries that have improved their democratic records since their recent "colored revolutions"?

The Amnesty report criticizes both countries for reports of torture and ill treatment by law-enforcement officers.

Amnesty highlights reports that Georgian police have placed plastic bags over detainees' heads and beaten prisoners with gun butts.

However, the report points out that in both Ukraine and Georgia, senior officials have begun to address the issue.

In Ukraine, the new government after the 2004 Orange Revolution changed legislation to allow state officials to be charged with torture.

And in Georgia, several high-ranking politicians have pledged to fight police abuse. There has also been more extensive monitoring of detention facilities.

Arenas says Georgia has been willing to listen to recommendations and implement legal amendments.

"The problem has actually been that that message has actually not translated down to the level of law-enforcement officials, who are the ones who continue to torture and ill-treat people," Arenas added.

The report notes that police in Georgia continue to cover up crimes and detainees are often afraid to file a complaint for fear of reprisals. (Luke Allnutt)

"RFE/RL Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova Report" is prepared by Jan Maksymiuk on the basis of a variety of sources including reporting by "RFE/RL Newsline" and RFE/RL's broadcast services. It is distributed every Tuesday.